Liberals likely to hold more seats than Labor in Tasmanian Election, but another hung parliament beckons

Tasmania is on track for another hung parliament with the Liberals likely to secure more seats than Labor, according to a new poll published today by DemosAU.

Commissioned by Pulse Tasmania, the Tasmanian election poll shows the Liberals hold a 10 percentage point lead over Labor 34.9% to 24.7% which DemosAU estimates will return 13-14 seats for the Liberals and 9-10 for Labor.

The poll indicates a vote share of 15.6% for The Greens and 20.3% for Independents (10.7% swing since the last election).

Tasmanians supported Jeremy Rockliff as preferred premier (40.7%) compared to 31.1% for Dean Winter.

Head of Research George Hasanakos said if these poll results are reflected next Saturday, Tasmania will have another hung parliament with the Liberals more likely to retain office.

“If Labor maintains its opposition to forming government with the support of the Greens then the current Liberal Government will retain office,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“The composition of the crossbench will be of crucial importance to the effectiveness of the next Parliament. With Greens and Independents growing their vote share they are primed to increase their seat count.

“The Greens are growing their vote in the north securing Cecily Rosol’s Bass seat and potentially capitalising on anti-stadium sentiment to win a second. The Greens are also well placed to win a seat in Braddon for the first time in more than a decade.”

Sitting independents on track to be re-elected

The Tasmanian election poll also shows sitting independent MPs, Craig Garland in Braddon, Kristie Johnston in Clark and David O’Byrne in Franklin look set to be re-elected with a quota of first preferences. They look set to be joined by independent Peter George in Franklin.

The final seats in Bass and Lyons will be crucial to the next Parliament. 

“At this stage, it appears in Bass the final seat will come down to between a second Green, sitting independent MP Rebekah Pentland and challenging independent George Razay,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“In Lyons the final seat will come down to a bevy of independents including Angela Offord, Nationals candidate and former MP John Tucker and the Shooters Fishers and Farmers’ Carlo di Falco.”

The poll of 3,421 Tasmanian voters was conducted from 06 July to 10 July with an effective margin of error of +/- 2.1%.

Please see our full Tasmanian Election Poll report for more details.

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