• Tasmanian Liberals remain in lead place in latest Tasmanian poll, with a primary vote of 28%.
• Labor in second place on 22%, followed by One Nation on 21%, the Greens on 15% and Independents on 10%.
• See the report for more information.

Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberals have retained their lead in the latest DemosAU Tasmania poll, with Labor narrowly ahead of One Nation in second place.

The September poll of 1,097 Tasmanians shows the Liberals unchanged on 28%, with Labor up 1 to 22% and One Nation unchanged on 21%, compared to the June/July poll.

The Greens are up 1 point to 15%, with Independents down 2% to 10%, with Others and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers unchanged on 2% each.

Compared to the 2025 election, the Liberals are down 11.9%, while Labor has lost 3.9% and Independents have dropped 5.3% and SFF have lost 0.9%. 

Those votes have mostly flowed to One Nation, which did not contest the 2025 poll.

The poll showed Premier Jeremy Rockliff leads Labor leader Josh Willie 42-34 as preferred Premier.

Mr Rockliff recorded a net positive rating of 0%, with 35% holding a positive view of the Premier and 35% holding a negative view. This was a 3 point improvement from the last poll.

Mr Willie’s rating was -8, down 2 percentage points.

Cost of living was the number 1 issue among respondents, followed by housing and homelessness and the health system.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll showed the rise of One Nation had disrupted not just the major parties, but also independents. 

“This poll puts support for Independent candidates at just 10%, well below their collective vote share at the 2025 state election.”

“It shows how political disruption can occur across the spectrum.

“If this poll was replicated at an election, the Tasmanian parliament would look substantially different to the one elected just over a year ago. 

“Given the likely mutli-party hung parliament that the vote shares would produce, there is no incentive for the Liberals to want to go back to the polls any time soon to improve their parliamentary position, indeed they would probably lose seats.

“Conversely, if Labor, Greens and progressive independents were able to work together they have no incentive to force an election as they would be unlikely to win a majority between them.” 

About this poll

The poll of 1,097 Tasmanian voters was conducted from 1-21 September 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.6 per cent.

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