Schrinner on track for re-election in Brisbane City Council Lord Mayoral Race

LNP’s Schrinner on track for re-election, as Greens vote rises

Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner is on track to be re-elected in this weekend’s Brisbane City Council elections, according to new research from DemosAU.

DemosAU surveyed 1034 BCC residents between March 8 and 14, and the responses were weighted to population demographic data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, with historic preference flows used to determine two candidate preferred projections.

The results put Mr Schrinner’s primary vote at 46.7%, down 1.0pp from the 2020 result, followed by Labor’s Tracey Price on 25.8%, down 5.1pp and the Greens’ Jonathan Sriranganathan on 21.6pp, up 6.2pp.

On a 2cp basis, Mr Schrinner leads Ms Price 57.7% to 42.3%, which is a 1.4% improvement for the LNP from the 2020 result.

Legalise Cannabis’s Clive Brazier is on 3.1%, with independents Gilbert Holmes and Bruce Tanti on 1.4%.

Ward Results

At the ward level, where most contests involve only LNP, Labor and Greens candidates, on a three party basis, the LNP’s primary vote sits at 43.7% (down 3.8%), while Labor is at 31.3% (down 2.5%) and the Greens are at 25.0% (+6.3%).

The results show the Greens are the preferred party of voters under 35, with 44% of respondents in this cohort indicating they will vote for the party first at the ward level, followed by Labor on 33% and the LNP on 24%.

The LNP leads among older demographics, with 44% of those aged 35-54 and 63% of those aged over 55 indicating they will preference the party first at a ward level.

By comparison, Labor’s support stands at 32% among 35-54 year olds and 29% among over 55s, while the Greens are at 24% and 8% among each cohort, respectively.

The Greens hold a narrow lead over Labor among renters, with 37% indicating they intend to preference the party first at the ward level, followed by Labor on 35% and the LNP on 28%.

However, the LNP clearly leads among those who own their home with a mortgage, at 47% and those who own their property outright at 62%.

Labor’s vote among these cohorts stands at 31% and 26% respectively, with the Greens at 22% and 12%.

The poll also showed the swing to the Greens was strongest in the inner city and western suburbs, at 7.5%, though they had also lifted their vote in the outer suburbs by 5%.

Commentary

By George Hasanakos, Director, Head of Research

Adrian Schrinner has successfully held on to most of his 2020 vote with only a small primary vote swing against him of 1% in this poll. Combined with a more even split in the centre-left vote and optional preferential voting, Schrinner is able to deliver a small swing to him with a two candidate preferred vote of 57.7%.

If this poll is reflected on election day, this achievement should not be underestimated. Inner urban areas have become harder electoral terrain for the Liberals in recent times, mirroring trends overseas. A 15 percentage point victory in inner urban and mid-suburban Australia for a centre-right party is a significant electoral achievement.

“Tracey Price’s challenge for Brisbane’s top job has been hampered by a short exposure time faced by all mayoral challengers for the largest winner take all electorate in Australia.

“Jonathan Sriranganathan has ridden the inner city Green wave to above 20% in this poll but has not met the lofty expectations of some observers after the 2022 Federal Green wins in Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane. Still, the Green campaign in 2024 should cement the party as a major force in Brisbane City Council elections ”

“In 22 of the 26 wards there is only an LNP, Labor and Green candidate. DemosAU undertook a generic 3 party ward poll to find out how the LNP/ALP/Green dynamic would play out at ward level.

Compared to an estimated city-wide 3 party vote in 2020, the Greens have won a 6.3% swing to them in this poll at the expense of LNP (down 3.8%) and Labor (down 2.5%).

“We also see some evidence that this swing is concentrated in inner urban and western suburban Brisbane.”

This puts several LNP held wards at risk of loss to the Greens. Based on a uniform swing Paddington is the Greens strongest chance, followed by reasonable chances of Green wins in Walter Taylor and Coorparoo. Central ward should also be considered in doubt.

An increased Green vote could also help Labor win the marginal ward of Enoggera. Holland Park is also in doubt with both the Greens and Labor challenging.

The results in the above wards will come down to the personal support sitting LNP councillors may be able to harness to resist the swing.

Any further LNP ward losses and the fate of the LNP council majority will depend on the inclination of Labor and Greens voters to allocate preferences in higher rates than in previous BCC elections where exhaustion rates were approximately 40-50%.

For more details, including our Methodology Statement, check out our release.