Victorian Poll Shows Swing Against State and Federal Labor
DemosAU has released new Victorian polling today showing a 7% two-party swing against state Labor since the 2022 state election, with Jacinta Allan scoring 30% for preferred premier compared to 43% for Opposition leader Brad Battin.
Political polling and market research company DemosAU conducted a state and federal voting intention poll of 1,006 Victorian adults between 17 and 21 March which showed swings against Labor at both state and federal levels.
The Victorian state voting intention poll, which follows the highly accurate polling DemosAU released before the recent West Australian election showed 52% support for the state Coalition on a two-party preferred basis compared to 48% for Labor.
On a primary vote basis, the Victorian Liberal National Coalition led on 39% (up 4.5% from the 2022 state election) followed by Labor on 25% (an 11.7% swing against), Greens 15% (up 3.5%) and Others 21% (up 3.7%).
Poll Boosts Victorian Coalition hopes
DemosAU Director of Research George Hasanakos said the Victorian poll provided hope for the state Coalition with a 52 – 48 two-party lead over Labor.
“While this isn’t the first poll to have the state Coalition in front, Brad Battin’s 43-30 lead as preferred premier would give them hope that Battin can engage and convince an election winning majority of voters,” he said.
“However, while Labor’s primary vote swing against it is -11.7%, only 4.5% is going to the Coalition. On these poll results with a significant Green vote, Labor could still hang on in minority government. The Coalition still has more work to do to get into a strong election winning position.”
Federally on a two-party preferred basis, Labor has suffered a 3.8% swing against, but still leads 51% – 49%.
Victorian Poll points to Swing Against Federal Labor
Mr Hasanakos said Victoria is still Federal Labor’s most concerning state.
“However with a two-party swing against it of under 4%, Labor may be able to limit seat losses in Victoria.
“The two party swing of 3.8% to the Liberals makes Chisholm, McEwen and Bruce the key seats in play.
“However, for the Coalition to make significant gains in Victoria to drive a change of government they would be hoping for wins in Labor-held outer metropolitan seats of Holt, Dunkley and Hawke, and the Geelong area seat of Corangamite.
“These seats are on margins of 7- 8% and would require outsized outer metro and regional swings to change hands.
Despite Victorians believing Australia was going in the wrong direction by a 55-30 margin, PM Albanese held a 40-37 lead over Opposition Leader Dutton as preferred Prime Minister.
“While an absolute majority of Victorians believe Australia is going in the wrong direction, Albanese still retains a small lead as preferred Prime Minister, indicating that Victorians are not flocking to Peter Dutton.”
Check out our Victorian Poll Report for more information.
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