George’s Say: Which States Will Decide the US Election?

After the dramatic change of candidate on the Democratic side just over two months ago, the US presidential contest has returned to its familiar narrow contest where the swing state outcomes are on a knife edge.

The focus will fall on seven swing states; the blue wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the sun belt (or adjacent) states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. 

Most polls in these states show a statistical tie. On balance Trump has a small 1-2pp lead in Georgia and Arizona, which combined with the states he won in 2020 would give him 246 electoral votes.

If Trump won the other sunbelt states of North Carolina and Nevada he would only win 268 electoral votes, 2 short of the 270 electoral vote victory threshold. Simply put Harris needs to defend all three blue wall states to win. Trump has to snag one.

The seemingly likely target is Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. Democratic Strategist James Carville famously summarised Pennsylvania as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in between.

The Harris campaign has taken this approach to heart, by not just focusing on the turn out of urban votes, but also focusing on rural campaigning to boost Democratic vote shares in Republican rural strongholds.

For a critical state like Pennsylvania such an approach may make all the difference.