New research from DemosAU has revealed a significant decline in trust in Australia’s national institutions since early 2025.

DemosAU’s TrustWatch April 2026 report shows that just 48% of Australians say they trust national institutions, down from 55% in January 2025.

Among individual institutions, the Bureau of Meteorology led the decline, with net trust* in the national weather service dropping 13 percentage points to 40%.

The BoM had been the most trusted institution in the 2025 TrustWatch report, but its reputation has fallen in the past 12 months, most likely due to problems with its website. 

The CSIRO now ranks as the most trusted institution, with a net trust score of 42%, down 5pp from 2025. 

At the other end of the scale, the Australian Energy Market Operator and the criminal justice system remain the least trusted, with a net score of -9%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the decline in trust had been strongest among voters under 35, and among renters and mortgage holders.

“It’s notable this decline is coming in a period of greater economic stress, especially in relation to housing costs.”

“Younger people are generally less economically secure, they are finding it difficult to enter the housing market, they’re still finding their way in life and work, and they generally feel more pessimistic and less hopeful on a whole range of things.”

The research also shows that university-educated Australians and higher-income earners show significantly higher levels of trust compared to those on lower incomes or with less formal education.

Trust is highest among Labor voters (compared to 58% of Coalition voters and just 28% among One Nation supporters), underscoring deep partisan differences in institutional confidence.

Mr Hasanakos said the findings highlight a critical challenge for policymakers and institutions alike.

“There are numerous examples from other countries and across history that show what can happen when people lose trust in national institutions.

“Institutions that rely on public confidence will need to work hard to maintain credibility, transparency and connection with the communities they serve, in this age of heightened economic pressure.”

About this research: The TrustWatch report is based on a nationally representative survey of 1,439 Australians conducted in April 2026.

*Net Trust = The percentage of respondents who indicated they trusted an institution minus the percentage who indicated they distrusted it. 

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Labor Under Pressure as Primary Vote Slides

Poll Slide leaves Labor and One Nation tied on 26% Primary

• Check out ourIn the Know podcast for a deeper discussion of this poll.

The latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 26%, leaving it tied with One Nation.

The poll of 1,439 voters, conducted between April 9 and 14, shows Labor’s primary is down 3 percentage points since February.

One Nation’s primary has also declined 2 percentage points, while the Coalition has lifted 2 points to 23%. The Greens vote is up 1 point to 13%, while Others are up 2 points to 12%. 

Seat Projections

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our January-March MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges: 

• Labor: 68-78 seats
• One Nation: 40-51 seats
• Coalition: 16-30 seats
• Greens: 1-4 seats
• Others: 3-8 seats.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the poll results were reproduced at an election, the most likely result would be a hung parliament or small Labor majority if an election was held today.

He said the government’s support had been weighed down by the impacts of the global energy crisis, caused by the Iran War.

“Despite the government acting by cutting the fuel tax excise and attempting to reassure Australians about fuel supplies, Mr Albanese has failed to win over voters and has instead seen support for Labor drop even further.” 

He said the results suggested the Coalition’s decision to change its leadership from Sussan Ley and David Littleproud to Angus Taylor and Matthew Canavan had been an effective reset for the centre right parties.

“Since we launched our regular national polling series late last year, this is the first time we’ve seen the Coalition gain ground, and One Nation go backwards,” he said.

“The Coalition is regaining some of the ground it has lost and there is now a genuine competition underway for voters on the right.”

Leadership ratings

The poll showed Anthony Albanese still leads as preferred prime minister (35%) in a three way contest with Pauline Hanson (24%) and Angus Taylor (22%).

However, Mr Albanese has a net positive rating of -20% (-3% since Feb 26 poll), with only 26% of voters having a positive view of the Prime Minister (-3% since Feb 26 poll).

By comparison, Ms Hanson’s net positive rating is -5% (34% positive, 39% negative), a four point decline since February, while Mr Taylor’s rose 1 point to -3% (25% positive, 28% negative).

Mr Hasanakos said the decline in Ms Hanson’s rating and the One Nation primary vote, were a sign that One Nation’s rise in the polls may be losing steam. 

“We can only spot a peak after the fact, but it’s very possible the surge in support we’ve seen for One Nation and Ms Hanson may be losing momentum.”

Australians were polled on the leadership attributes of all three leaders, with Ms Hanson polling more favourably on almost all qualities compared to Mr Albanese and Mr Taylor.

A total of 58% of Australians thought Ms Hanson was decisive and strong (compared to 26% for Mr Albanese and 33% for Mr Taylor), while 37% believed she was trustworthy compared to 30% for Mr Albanese and 24% for Mr Taylor.

But more Australians believed Ms Hanson was arrogant (42%) compared to 37% for Mr Albanese and 25% for Mr Taylor.

Please see our report for more information or check out our In the Know Podcast.

About this poll

This poll of 1,439 respondents was carried out between 9 April and 14 April 2026. The effective margin of error is +/- 3.3%.

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