New poll: Labor Gains Support in Inner Brisbane but Contest Still Tight

A new poll of Greens-held Brisbane seats points to a series of close contests, with a moderate swing towards Labor at the expense of the minor party and the LNP failing to recover ground lost at the 2022 election..

The DemosAU poll of Greens-held Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan shows a primary vote of 36% for the LNP (+0.4% swing from the 2022 election), 29% for the Greens (-1.7% swing) and 29% for Labor (+2.7% swing).

Battle for Second Place Likely to Decide Winner

The results suggest the LNP will lead in the primary count but would struggle to overcome the combined Labor/Greens vote, with the results likely to hinge on which party secures second place in the final count. 

If Labor were to finish in second place across all three electorates, the poll puts the two party preferred vote at 56% to 44% against the LNP. If the Greens were to finish in second place, the TPP would be 55-45 against the LNP. 

“This poll indicates that Labor and the Greens are locked in a tight contest across inner Brisbane, with the LNP’s prospects fading in their targeted electorates of Brisbane and Ryan,” DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said.

“The ‘Greens-slide’ of 2022 has receded at the edges, indicating that some of the protest votes gathered by the Greens at the last federal election have gone elsewhere.

“Despite being the incumbents in all three seats, the Greens’ vote has moderately fallen in the poll, however they may still retain their seats. 

“Labor, on these figures, could potentially pick up Brisbane and Griffith and would be an outside chance in Ryan.

“Despite losing incumbency in 2022 in 2 of the 3 seats polled, the LNP vote has held up with a result similar to 2022.

“But the LNP seems to have failed to recover the ground it lost at that election, significantly hurting Peter Dutton’s hopes of forming government.”

Queensland Crucial to National Result

Mr Hasanakos said the Queensland seats will be crucial to the national result.

“These three seats are critical because in a close contest they will help determine the make-up of the next Parliament.”

A Labor win across these electorates would greatly improve the party’s chances of securing a parliamentary majority – while Brisbane and Ryan are a key part of the Coalition’s election hopes.

And for the Greens, these contests could determine the level of political clout they have over the next three years.” 

The poll of 1,087 Brisbane voters was conducted online via internet panel from 7 to 15 April. The effective margin of error was +/- 4.5%.

Check out our Methodology Statement and Tables for more information.

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