Navigating Hare-Clark: Our Tasmanian Election Polling Challenge

Navigating Hare-Clark: Our Tasmanian Election Polling Delivered Greater Detail and Accuracy

At DemosAU we’re trusted by leading organisations across Australia to provide reliable and accurate data and insights.

We don’t shy from a challenge and Tasmania with its small population and its complex Hare-Clark system is one of the most challenging to poll.

Despite this, the Pulse Tasmania DemosAU Tasmanian Election poll published on 13 July painted the most comprehensive picture of the election result a week out from polling day.

The scope of the Tasmanian Election polling which included candidate level forecasts in every seat was unprecedented for recent elections in the Apple Isle.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the Tasmanian election poll was designed to show the candidate contest, not just the party contest. 

“While Hare-Clark is known as a proportional representation electoral system, it is still based on individual candidates. We wanted to show not just which parties were doing well but also which candidates were doing well. With several former Federal MPs running this election had the most potential for intra-party candidate change since 1986.” Mr Hasanakos said.

It’s important to point out the poll wasn’t perfect – a common problem with Tasmanian election polling is that it tends to overestimate the vote share of independents at the expense of major parties. That was the case with this poll, as with other published polls during this election – our final poll numbers overestimated independents and underestimated the Liberals (in percentage terms, though perhaps not in terms of seat numbers), while coming close to the Labor and Greens votes overall.  

However, it also got a lot right: it correctly predicted a hung parliament, with the Liberals as the largest party, with Labor suffering a substantial swing and on track for its worst ever election result. A week out from the election result, readers of Pulse Tasmania were given a clear and detailed overview of the electoral context and a broadly accurate snapshot of the final results.

Other key findings from our Pulse Tasmanian Election Poll which were reflected in the election results to date include;

Bass

  • Former Federal MP and non-incumbent Bridget Archer polling the most of any Liberal candidate at 19%
  • Former Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson polling under a quota, only the second time this has occurred in his 6 state election runs. This had only occurred previously in 2021 when former Liberal Premier Gutwein polled a mammoth 48%.
  • The likely defeat of Liberal Simon Wood who currently sits on 2% close to his poll result of 2.2%
  • The general shape of the Labor candidates contest with sole incumbent Janie Finlay clearly polling highest and a tight contest for Labor’s second seat.
  • The Greens surge in Bass, polling clearly above their state-wide total

Braddon

  • The likely election of non-incubment and former Federal MP Gavin Pearce and the low vote share for former Senator for Tasmania Stephen Parry at approximately 1%.
  • Anita Dow clearly leading among all Labor candidates
  • Incumbent Independent Craig Garland being returned by polling in the region of a quota on first preferences.
  • Challenging Independent Adam Martin winning less than half of his federal election vote share.

Clark

  • Incumbent Independent Kristie Johnston polling over a quota and topping the poll among all the candidates.
  • Non-incumbent Liberal Marcus Vermey polling above either incumbent Liberal (Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie)
  • The possibility of Josh Wille outpolling Ella Haddad on the Labor ticket. Ella Haddad was Labor’s highest polling candidate at the last two elections, she only currently leads Josh Willie by 0.1%
  • Former Liberal member Elise Archer running as an Independent only polling in mid-to-low single digits and failing to re-enter parliament . (Poll: 4%, current result: 3%)
  • The overall status quo result of party seat result, with the Liberals as the highest polling party.

Franklin

  • Challenging Independent Peter George polling over a quota and topping the poll among all the candidates.
  • Sitting Independent David O’Byrne being re-elected by polling in the region of a quota.
  • The overall seat result of 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green and 2 Independents with a broadly accurate picture of the vote share placings of the three parties.
  • The significant fall of the Green vote due to the Peter George vote shares and despite the incumbent Green MP Rosalie Woodruff being the party leader.

Lyons

  • Jane Howlett topping the poll among all the candidates by polling over a quota. Howlett polled above Guy Barnett who scored the highest among Liberal candidates in Lyons in 2024.
  • Jen Butler polling the highest among Labor candidates in the absence of previous leader Rebecca White
  • The likely election of non-incubment and former Labor Federal MP Brian Mitchell.
  • The defeat of Casey Farrell
  • The possibility of Carlo di Falco of Shooters Fishers and Farmers winning the final seat.
  • Non-incumbent Former Liberal state member for Lyons John Tucker outpolling fellow Nationals candidate and incumbent Andrew Jenner.

You can access our full Tasmanian Election Poll here.

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