Support for One Nation has continued to climb in South Australia following the March election, while Peter Malinauskas’s Labor has lost ground, according to new polling.
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll of 931 South Australian voters, conducted from May 29 to June 15, shows Labor’s primary vote down 2.5 percentage points since the election to 35%, while One Nation’s share has lifted 3.1 points to 26%.
The Liberals are down 0.9 points to 18%, while the Greens are up 2.6% to 13%, with Others down 2.3% to 8%.
On a two party preferred basis, Labor is on 56%, down 2.1% from the election, compared to One Nation on 44%.
Peter Malinauskas remains Australia’s most popular political leader, with a net approval rating of +22, despite a seven point slide on this measure since the election.
By comparison, Liberal leader Ashton Hurn’s net rating was -3%, with One Nation leader Cory Bernardi on -21.
Mr Malinauskas also leads Ms Hurn as preferred premier 51-20.
However, South Australians are more pessimistic about the direction of the state, with 38% saying it is heading in the right direction (down 6 points since the DemosAU/Ace Strategies March poll), and 39% saying it is heading in the wrong direction (up 3 points).
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies pre-election poll, published exclusively in In Daily, proved to be highly accurate – correctly predicting all party totals to within two percentage points, and the One Nation vote within 0.1 percentage points.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the continued rise in One Nation’s support mirrored the national trend over recent months.
“Support for One Nation has risen across all of our recent state and national polls, so this is nothing unique to South Australia,” he said.
“If the trend seen in this poll becomes entrenched, then One Nation will become the main electoral opponent to Labor, while the Liberals could only hope to return to government as One Nation’s junior coalition partner.
Ace Strategies Director Matt Neagle said One Nation’s rise in South Australia was being driven by a broad anti-establishment sentiment rather than by policy alignment.
“Their support base spans voters from the left through to the far right, which tells us this is a protest movement, not a cohesive ideological block.
“What stands out in the polls is that One Nation continues to grow without presenting a detailed or compelling policy vision for the state. Their momentum is being fuelled by frustration with the traditional parties, not a clear alternative agenda.”
“Labor has lost ground, and the Liberals have not capitalised on that shift.”
“The Liberal’s challenge is that they are losing voters to a party that isn’t offering a fully formed platform – that reflects a deeper disconnect between the Opposition and the electorate.”
