South Australia Poll shows strong lead for State Labor, but federal race tightens
South Australian Labor has built a strong lead over the Opposition Liberals, but the federal landscape remains more competitive in the state, according to a new South Australia poll from DemosAU.
The poll of 1001 South Australians, conducted between February 18 and 23 showed the 3 point primary swing towards Peter Malinauskas’s Labor (43%) while the Liberal Opposition had suffered a 5.6% swing to 30%.
After preferences are allocated, Labor has a two party preferred lead of 59% – 41%, a 4.4% swing compared to the 2022 state election.
DemosAU Director and Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the poll results were replicated with uniform swings at an election, state Labor would win more than 30 of the state’s 47 seats, while the Liberal party would be reduced to single digits.
“The state Liberal vote has not yet got off the mat after its disastrous 2024 where they lost two seats to the Government in by-elections and suffered the David Spiers scandal with the implosion of his leadership,” he said.
“Premier Malinauskas’ popularity remains high with a 28pp lead in Preferred Premier and a majority of South Australians believing the state is heading in the right direction. The latter is a remarkable result given that incumbents globally are being battered by cost-of-living pressures.”
Federally, the SA poll shows a 1% two party preferred swing against Labor in South Australia, with the ALP leading Peter Dutton’s coalition 53% to 47%.
The poll puts Labor’s primary at 34%, compared to 35% for the Coalition, which equates to a swing of less than one percentage point against both parties. Meanwhile, the Greens primary is at 11%, 1.8% down on last election, while the One Nation vote is up 1.2% to 6% and the Others vote is up 1.8% to 14%.
Mr Hasanakos said the SA poll showed federal Labor was largely holding its ground in the state.
“If the South Australian swing is reflected on election day, Labor would be favourite in Boothby and Liberals favourite in Sturt. However, both seats still remain in play,” he said.
“Given the collapse of the state Liberal Vote, Peter Dutton has done well to largely prevent contagion to the Federal Coalition.”
According to the poll, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton as Preferred Prime Minister 39% to 33%, while 39% believe Australia is headed in the right direction, compared to 46% who disagree.
Please see our attached South Australia Poll report for more details.
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