South Australian Labor is surging towards a landslide victory with the DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll showing the party leading the Liberals 66-34 per cent on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis.
The poll shows an 11.4 per cent TPP swing to Labor since the March 2022 election, with the Liberals facing a wipeout of all its metropolitan seats.
The shift towards the Malinauskas-led ALP is based on an increase in its primary vote to 47 per cent, compared to the Liberal’s 21 per cent – down 14.7 per cent since the last election.
It follows major wins for the Premier’s team in two by-elections this term, where the Liberal Party farewelled two leaders, Steven Marshall and David Speirs. Current Leader Vincent Tarzia would join them if today’s poll is repeated at the ballot box in March 2026.
Tarzia’s leadership woes are further reflected in the DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll data showing Labor’s Peter Malinauskas as preferred Premier with 58 per cent of voters and Mr Tarzia at 19 per cent with 23 per cent registering as “don’t know”.
But voters registered their concern by rating the Malinauskas State Government poorly on several issues including cost of living, hospital ramping and the algal bloom, with net negative performance ratings.
Overall, voters thought South Australia was “headed in the right direction” (45 per cent) compared to 36 per cent who nominated “the wrong direction” and 19 per cent unsure.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the result was one of the most lopsided voting intention polls that we’ve seen in Australia.
“The vote for Labor is staggering but when you dig further beyond Malinauskas’s personal popularity, there are several high-profile issues where voters rank the government poorly – including housing, cost of living, hospital ramping and the algal bloom.
“The current dynamic could be because Malinauskas’s personal popularity is still sky high and the Liberals have not shaken off internal instability.
“This is keeping Labor’s vote sky high. Should these factors recede then it’s quite possible to see a significant correction back to a more competitive contest, but the Liberals are running out of time to turn it around.
“If this poll was reflected at the election based on a uniform swing, the Liberals would be reduced to a rural rump of three to six seats.”
Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said the poll showed the Liberal brand failing to register with young voters.
“Among voters aged 18-34 years, the Liberal primary vote is in the cellar at 13 per cent, with The Greens attracting 29 per cent. That suggests a social media disconnect and lack of credibility on environmental issues.”
Despite its strong numbers, the poll shows Labor is unlikely to win a majority in the Legislative Council where One Nation is on track to secure a spot in the upper house chamber, despite its 2022-elected MLC Sarah Game defecting from the party.
Voters preferred Labor at 37 per cent, while the Liberals recorded 17 per cent, half of their 2022 result of 34 per cent . Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s vote is at 12 per cent.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said: “With an upper house vote of 37 per cent or 4.44 quotas, Labor is on track to elect four or maybe five upper house members next year to join their five continuing MLCs. This would leave the Labor government with nine or 10 MLCs, short of the 12 needed for majority. However given the large minor party vote spread among many small parties, Labor could have multiple paths to negotiate passage of Government legislation.
“One Nation is polling 12 per cent in the upper house, which would easily elect one MLC and potentially a second.”
The South Australian election is scheduled to be held on 21 March 2026.
About the poll
The poll of 1,006 South Australians was conducted via internet panel from 6 to 15 October 2025. The effective margin of error was +/- 3.9%.
The full report and methodology statement can be found here.
