The Liberals have strengthened their position in Tasmania, leading Labor  41 – 24 per cent on a primary vote basis, according to a new poll released today by DemosAU.

Just over three months on from the state election, the swing of 1.1 per cent to the Liberals suggests voters’ general satisfaction with the Rockliff Liberal State Government in the current hung parliament.

Meanwhile, Labor has suffered a -1.9 per cent swing since the election.

On a primary vote basis, the Greens came third with 15 per cent of the vote (+0.6 per cent swing), Independents 14 per cent (-1.3 per cent swing), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 2 per cent (-0.9% swing) and any other candidate at 4 per cent (+2.4 per cent swing).

On the question of preferred premier, Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal) leads Josh Willie (Labor) 46 – 34 per cent. This compares to a July 2025 DemosAU poll which had Rockliff at 40.7% compared to Dean Winter (31.1%).

When voters were asked to rate nine of Tasmania’s high profile state political figures, Rockliff received a net positive score of +5 per cent, the highest of all tested.

Shadow Treasurer Dean Winter (Shadow Treasurer, Labor) had the highest negative score from a list of nine leading MPs including Liberal, Labor, Greens and Independent MPs. Winter had an overall net positive score of -33 per cent. The full list of leaders and how they ranked can be found in our poll report.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll revealed that governing in a minority had not dented the popularity of Jeremy Rockliff since the election. 

“The Liberals have slightly improved their position since the last election which suggests that Tasmanians overall seem satisfied with the Liberals in office post-election and haven’t changed their mind much since the election.

“At this early stage, governing in the minority has not hurt the Rockliff Liberal State Government, with a slightly improved electoral position and Rockliff having the best personal ratings among leading figures in the House of Assembly. ” 

“However, other senior Liberals; Deputy Premier Guy Barnett and Treasurer Eric Abetz, don’t perform as well, indicating that the Liberals electoral support is driven by Rockliff’s personal popularity.”

But Mr Hasanakos said there were some concerns for the Liberals. 

“In this poll the Liberals are doing better among younger voters than older voters which definitely bucks the trend of the usual behaviour of older people generally voting more conservative.

“While we must be cautious in relying too much on demographic breakdowns in a single poll, this unique result follows on from relatively weak support of the Liberals among older voters in our pre-election polling.

“We put this down to older people being more skeptical about the Macquarie Point Stadium, and they are putting their votes with Independents who are more likely to oppose the stadium.”

About the poll

The poll of 1,021 Tasmanian voters was conducted from 16 October to 27 October with an effective margin of error of +/- 4.4 per cent.

A copy of the methodology statement can be found here.

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