George’s Take: Seats to Watch at the 2024 Queensland Election
Here are seven seats we’ll be watching closely as votes are counted from the Queensland election:
Cairns
While Labor is tipped to lose a swag of seats in regional Queensland, the tourism-based FNQ economy and the dominance of the services industry make Cairns a special place. Cairns could remain competitive for Labor like Leichhardt federally.
Rockhampton
The presence of former mayor Margaret Strelow as an independent adds an extra dimension to this contest. After polling 23% percent in 2017, Strelow may have the base to challenge for the win in 2024.
Maryborough
Sitting MP Bruce Saunders has resuscitated Labor’s vote in this Wide Bay seat from 12% in 2012 to 53% in 2020. Will he and Labor’s commitment to train manufacturing in Maryborough help stave off defeat? Can One Nation rebound from 2020 Covid lows to challenge again for one of its 1998 original 11 seats. One to watch for sure.
Caloundra
Labor’s 2020 gain of Caloundra gave it a beachhead on the Sunshine Coast. Can sitting MP Jason Hunt hold on against the statewide swing to give Labor a base for growth on the Sunshine Coast?
Pumicestone
The poster child of the ‘Palaszcuk Pensioner’ seats, Pumicestone has the largest share of over 55s in the state. If the unwind of the Palaszcuk Pensioner seats comes to pass then the LNP should regain this seat. A fierce local campaign on health and transport keeps this seat in doubt. Should Labor retain, this will be a powerful urban fringe base for future growth.
Aspley
The LNP will be keen to pick up Aspley to bolster its seat holdings in the city of Brisbane. Transport Minister Bart Mellish has obtained a glow from the popularity of 50 cent fares. If the LNP can win Aspley then it will be on track for a substantial majority.
Gaven
Housing Minister Meaghan Scanlon is Labor’s only Gold Coast MP. Labor will be looking to hold Gaven to retain a presence on the Gold Coast. Gaven represents a slice of Gold Coast suburbia which Labor will want to keep a foothold in to be competitive in this region in the future.
*This is not an exhaustive list. It has been compiled in the interests of brevity.
