Incumbency is a powerful factor in politics. Its mere status gives politicians an authority they would not otherwise have.

However, with incumbency comes responsibility for the state and the nation. The longer the incumbency and the more levels held, the more the incumbent and their party will be held responsible for the problems in the community.

Queensland Labor is seeking re-election after 9 years in office along with the shadow of a Labor Federal Government in Canberra. In these circumstances incumbency heavily weighs down on the electoral fortunes of incumbents.

Federal Drag on State Governments

We can see this by looking at the average state-wide two party preferred share of mainland state governments over the past 40 years.

Mainland State Governments who seek re-election whilst their party is in power federally win an average state-wide TPP of 48.3%. Doesn’t seem so bad at first glance but the federal drag can bring state incumbents down.

Mainland State Governments who seek re-election after 9 years or more in office win an average of 46.2%. Not so good for long term incumbents.

But combine the two factors and we get a perfect storm. State Governments who seek re-election after 9 years or more in office and also have their party in power in Canberra win an average TPP of 42.7%. Electoral catastrophe territory.

Can Queensland Labor buck the trend?

There is a glimmer of light for Queensland Labor in that the only instance of a re-elected State Government in power for 9 years or more and having their party in power federally, was Queensland Labor in 2009. However, it is the exception among 6 other defeats which include some of the more devastating state election defeats in recent times.

So while history is definitely against Labor this election, it will still be a hard-fought election. We can only wait to see once polls close on October 26 how close the result will be.