One point TPP improvement for federal Labor in new Queensland poll

A DemosAU poll of 1004 Queenslanders has shown a 1% two party preferred swing towards federal Labor ahead of the upcoming Australian election.

The Queensland poll, conducted between February 10 and 14, showed the LNP leading Labor 53-47%, from 54-46% at the last federal poll.

Labor’s primary vote has risen 3.6% from the 2022 federal election to 31%, while the LNP’s primary is down 0.6% to 39%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said with a long term Labor state government now gone, the Queensland poll results suggested Federal Labor now has a better chance to grow support in the state.

“While the Federal Coalition has had long term electoral success in Queensland, it should not take its seats for granted in 2025,” he said.

Federal Labor’s slight advantage over its state counterpart is built on polling better among over 55s, a Labor weakness. State Labor polls 37% TPP among this cohort, Federal Labor polls at 39%.”

State LNP holds its support after first 100 days in Queensland poll

The poll also showed the state LNP leading Labor 54-46%, a swing of 0.2% compared to the 2024 election result, following its first 100+ days in office.

Both major parties have seen minor drops in their primary vote, within the Queensland poll’s margin of error, with the LNP’s vote down 1.5%, compared to 2.4% for Labor.

Mr Hasanakos said a gender gap is evident in party support with the LNP polling 56% TPP among Men, 5 percentage points ahead the LNP TPP among women of 51%.

Age is currently the biggest demographic cleavage in state political support. The LNP TPP is 40% for 18-34, 52% among 35-54 and 63% among 55+.”

For more information, please see our methodology statement.