Queensland’s LNP is weathering the surge in support for One Nation better than its Coalition counterparts interstate and in Canberra, according to a new DemosAU/PremierNational poll.

The poll of 1,044 Queenslanders, conducted from 10 to 20 February, shows the LNP leading on 34% (down 7.5% from last election), ahead of Labor on 28% (down 4.6%), One Nation on 21% (up 13%) and the Greens on 10% (unchanged).

Compared to the October 2025 DemosAU/PremierNational poll, the LNP is down 3%, while Labor is down 1%, One Nation is up 7% and the Greens are down 2%.

On a two party preferred basis, the LNP leads 56% to 44%, up 2.2% since the last election.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while there had been a primary vote swing against the LNP, it was muted compared to what had occurred nationally and interstate.

“At a time when we are seeing the Federal Coalition poll below 20% nationwide due to the One Nation surge, the fact that the LNP is on 34% in One Nation’s home state is significant.”

Mr Hasanakos said the poll results showed the LNP had been relatively successful in minimising the swing to One Nation among the core conservative demographic of voters aged over 55.

Amongst voters aged over 55, 47% said they would vote for the LNP compared to 16% for One Nation. 

By comparison, a DemosAU/Capital Brief federal poll conducted in mid-late January showed One Nation leading in this cohort with 31% of the vote, compared to 23% for the Coalition.

LNP Holding on to Voters over 55

“The return of voters aged over 55 to the LNP was the lynchpin of its state election win in 2024. It appears that older conservative voters are relatively happy with the performance of the state government and are happy to stick with the LNP for now.”

However, One Nation recorded a spike in support among middle aged voters aged 35-54, registering a primary of 30%, up from 16% in October. The LNP primary for this cohort dropped from 32% to 29% over the same period, while Labor dropped from 30% to 26%.

Part of the reason for the LNP’s strength appears to be the relative personal popularity of Premier David Crisafulli.

Mr Crisafulli leads Opposition Leader Steven Miles as preferred Premier 43% to 32% and holds a net positive rating of +16, with 39% of voters holding a positive view of him, compared to 23% who had a negative view.

The poll showed 44% of Queenslanders believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared to 36% who believed it was heading in the wrong direction.

In terms of its handling of major issues, respondents generally approved of the government’s handling of gun control in the wake of the Bondi massacre (+16%), as well as the education system (+11%), the Olympics (+4%) and state budget (+4%).

However, it scored sharply negative marks for its handling of housing (-38%) and cost of living (-44)% and energy and electricity (-19%). Crime (-6%) and health and hospitals (-4%) were also in negative territory.

Voters nominated cost of living (33%), lack of affordable housing (25%) and crime including youth crime (17%) as the biggest issues in Queensland today (open-ended question).

PremierNational Executive Director – Queensland Nelson Savanh said the poll results suggested Coalition leaders in other states should be looking to Queensland for guidance and inspiration. 

“The Crisafulli recipe for centre-right politics is paying off. While One Nation has been enjoying a rise across the country to the detriment of the Coalition, it’s been largely held at bay by the State LNP in Queensland,” he said.

“If you’re a Liberal leader in any other state, you would see two options for dealing with the populist right;  one was messily played out in Canberra over the last few weeks and the other is Crisafulli’s modern and methodical approach.

“The challenge for the LNP in 2026 will be convincing Queenslanders that it is turning the corner on the key issues of housing and cost of living. If they fail to do that, One Nation will try and capitalise on that voter dissatisfaction.”

Notes: The poll of 1,044 Queenslanders voters was conducted from 10-20 February 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.7 per cent.

Please see our report for more information.

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