Our election guru George Hasanakos reflects on the Queensland election and gives us insight into some of our most burning questions. 

Why did the Greens vote collapse and where did the Greens vote go? Which surprising demographic voted for Steven Miles? Why did Labor perform particularly bad in regional Queensland, and is there any way back? Why was the pre-poll vote so different compared to the election day vote? What gave the LNP the edge. Read more in George’s take below.

The Greens

The Greens vote collapsed because Steven Miles was doing very well with the 18 – 34 year old cohort especially in the inner city. He took a slice of the Green vote and brought it over to Labor and this is why the Greens went backwards in the inner city, falling well short in all of their targets and losing South Brisbane. 

Whether Labor can rely on this at the federal election is the big x factor. Miles’ appeal at the state election isn’t a factor that will necessarily replicate itself at the federal election. If there are state spillovers factors into the federal election such as 50 cent fares and abortion – issues which aren’t directly federal issues but which may gain traction – this could boost the Labor vote.

Which surprising demographic voted for Steven Miles? 

During 2024 despite ultimately losing the campaign, Steven Miles made great strides with the 18 – 34 year old male vote. According to DemosAU’s monthly polling, in January 2024 Labor’s primary vote for men aged 18 – 34 sat at 31%. By the end of the campaign this had risen to 39%. Was it all those TikTok videos of Steven Miles bench pressing in the gym and hanging out with influencers that bumped up his vote? There could be some truth to that.

Regional Queensland

Generally all across the world we are seeing metropolitan areas swing to the left and country/regional areas swing to the right. This is particularly profound in areas with extensive blue collar industries such as mining. So on this basis the swings against Labor in Townsville, Mackay and Rockhampton do mimic global trends. Specifically crime as an issue was more profoundly felt in regional centres.

Is there a way back for Labor? Nothing is impossible if the statewide vote is high enough as we saw in WA in 2021. But even if the crime issue is resolved whether by crime coming down or the LNP being seen as the same as Labor, there is still the aforesaid global trends. In the future in a 50-50 election it’s very possible Labor could win the seats of Rockhampton and Townsville but other seats would be much more difficult. A popular local member in regional centres is invaluable, like Tom Smith in Bundaberg who was able to hold on against the tide.

Voting day differences

The difference between pre-poll voting and on the day voting was probably down to three factors. Firstly, right-of-centre voters have been much more enthusiastic to get their votes done because they were motivated for a change of government. Secondly, Labor’s overall vote improved as the campaign wore on. Thirdly, younger voters are more likely to vote on election day and they turned out for Steven Miles and there was a clear age differential with older voters leaning to the LNP and younger voters leaning towards Labor.

What gave the LNP the edge?

The impetus to the LNP 2024 victory goes back to the conservative party gaining the ascendancy in Queensland polling in the second half of 2023 by winning back over 55 year old voters. It was an edge that they largely held on to all the way to election day with little leakage to Labor or indeed One Nation.

This edge should not be understated. For all political parties, making the case against their opponents is a much easier task than building the positive case to vote for them.

By keeping older voters with the LNP, instead of just letting them spray from Labor, ensured a parliamentary majority and built up formidable margins especially in regional seats.

Further, by winning back older voters directly to the LNP, this kept the One Nation vote down. The fact the One Nation primary was only 8% in a state where it has scored double digit primaries on multiple occasions was just as much a victory for the LNP as was its 54% state-wide two party preferred vote.