One Nation’s continued surge in support has put the party only one point behind Labor, and seven points ahead of the Coalition in the latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll.

The poll of 1,551 respondents nationwide, conducted between February 16 and 20, showed One Nation on 28% (up 4% from January) — one point behind Labor on 29% (down 1%) — and ahead of the Liberal National Coalition on 21% (unchanged), the Greens on 12% (down 1%) and Others on 10% (down 2%).

Anthony Albanese leads as Preferred Prime Minister on 37%, (down 2%), ahead of One Nation leader Pauline Hanson on 25% (down 1%) and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor on 19% (up 3% compared to his predecessor Sussan Ley, who was on 16% in February).

However, Mr Albanese has a net positive rating of -17%, with 29% of voters having a positive view of the Prime Minister, compared to 46% who had a negative view. By comparison, Ms Hanson’s rating is -1% (37% positive, 38% negative) and Mr Taylor’s is -4% (24% positive, 28% negative).

Mr Taylor’s rating is a sharp improvement on the -18% rating Ms Ley recorded in January.

Seat Projections

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our October/November MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges: Labor: 76-85 seats, One Nation: 43-54 seats, Coalition: 9-20 seats, Greens: 0-2 seats, and Others: 3-7 seats.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll showed One Nation picking up some support from male Greens voters and supporters of other parties, rather than making further gains at the expense of the Coalition.

“While the improvement in One Nation’s vote up to this point has come mostly from traditional Coalition supporters, they are now extending their appeal to less conservative voters who are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties,” he said.

“This somewhat mirrors the trend in the US before the 2024 election, where Donald Trump was able to harness the support of younger male voters who were not necessarily supporters of the Republican party.”

“But while this movement reflects trends overseas, the relatively small size of the movement means we need to be cautious and wait for future polls to confirm if it is a lasting trend.”

Mr Hasanakos said the results were an early indication the Liberal Party’s decision to replace Ms Ley with Mr Taylor was yielding some benefits. 

“Mr Taylor is viewed more positively among both Coalition and One Nation voters compared to Ms Ley, indicating they may be more receptive to his leadership.”

“This may well be reflected in the fact that the Coalition vote appears to have stabilised, albeit at a low base, in this poll after declining steeply over several months.”

A total of 75% of Coalition voters hold a positive opinion of Mr Taylor, compared to just 51% for Ms Ley in January. He is also viewed positively by 23% of One Nation voters, compared to 6% for Ms Ley. 

Notes: This poll of 1,551 respondents was carried out between February 16 and February 20, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%

Please see our report for more information.

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