A new DemosAU/PremierNational Victorian state poll shows a surge in support for One Nation, but the Liberal/National Coalition remain in poll position.

The survey of 1,274 Victorian voters, conducted from 1-10 February 2026, shows One Nation’s primary vote reaching 21%, behind Labor on 23% (down 13.7% from the last election) and the Coalition on 29% (down 5.5%). 

The Greens are on 15% (up 3.5%), while others are on 12% (down 5%).

Liberals Extend 2PP Lead

On a two party preferred basis, the Liberal/Nationals Coalition lead Labor 53% to 47% — an 8% swing from the last election.

Since the most recent DemosAU poll in October, the Coalition has lost 8 points from its primary, while Labor has lost 3. However, the L/NP primary has lifted two points. 

Liberal Leader Jess Wilson leads Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier 40% to 31%.

When voters were asked whether they had a positive or negative view of the leaders, Ms Wilson recorded a net score of +3% (27% positive vs 24% negative), compared to Ms Allan’s -37% (16% positive vs 53% negative). 

When asked who they would preference first in the upper house, 28% of respondents selected the Liberals/Nationals, followed by One Nation on 20%, Labor on 19% and the Greens on 14%.

Crime was the number one issue for 30% of voters, followed by cost of living on 29% and housing affordability on 12%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the results were replicated at an election, a change of government would be likely. However, the wildcard is the possibility of One Nation holding the balance of power in the Lower House. 

“In Victoria we see a government on the nose and a struggling Liberal party brand federally, resulting in many voters sending their vote to One Nation. 

“Whether this is a permanent shift or voters are merely parking their vote remains to be seen.

“With 20% of the vote, we can expect to see One Nation winning seats, especially as their vote is concentrated in regional areas, where they are outpolling both major parties,” he said.

“So we could expect them to have a chance to win some regional and rural seats. How many One Nation would win depends on preference flows and which major party runs third in any given seat. 

Please see our report for more information.

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