One Nation has overtaken the Liberal National Coalition to move into second place on primary votes in New South Wales, according to new polling released by DemosAU/Premier National today.
The latest state voting intention poll of 1,038 people from 15 June 2026 to 18 June 2026 shows One Nation now has a seven percentage point lead ahead of the Liberal National Coalition on primary votes.
On primary votes, Labor leads on 32% (-2% swing since DemosAU’s February poll), One Nation on 27% (+6% swing), and the Liberal National Coalition on 20% (-3% swing). The Greens were 13% (-2% swing) and Others 8% (+1%).
Since the last election One Nation has surged 25% while the Coalition has slid 15%.
Amongst over 55s, 9% have swung to One Nation since February while 8% have deserted the Coalition. In regional NSW outside of the Hunter and the Illawarra, One Nation has a large lead over the Coalition.
In the Upper House, Labor leads with 30% of the vote followed by One Nation on 27% and the Liberal-National Coalition on 20%.
Cost of living is clearly the biggest issue for voters (41%). Housing affordability came in second at 23%.
New South Wales is headed in the wrong direction according to 48% of voters, with 27% reporting the state is headed in the right direction.
Asked whether the Minns state government was doing a good job of managing state issues, the government improved on all categories –including housing, health and cost of living – since the DemosAU February poll but net satisfactory scores were still -55% for cost of living and -47% for housing.
The government’s management of energy and electricity improved 10% since February.
One Nation On The Rise
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the rising vote for One Nation is a result of voters switching over from the Liberal National Coalition and Labor.
“If an election were held today the Coalition would be at severe risk of being relegated to the crossbenches,” Mr Hasanakos said.
“One Nation is attracting more over 55 voters and more females than they usually have and what we’re seeing is voters deserting the Liberal National Coalition,” he added.
“In regional New South Wales outside of the Sydney Basin, the One Nation primary vote rises to 37%, Labor is second with 23% of the vote and the Liberal National Coalition is third with 19% of the vote.
“This spells real trouble for the Coalition, that even amongst what should be their base in rural/regional NSW, One Nation is picking up almost double the number of voters, and even Labor is seen as more appealing.
“The numbers outside the Sydney Basin seem to indicate One Nation will win a base of seats there.
“One Nation is also sneaking up on Labor, they’re now only five percentage points behind, but it will depend on preference flows under the OPV system which is the great unknown at this stage.”
The Upper House Contest
PremierNational Equity Partner Kathryn Conroy said, “Whilst we tend to focus on the Lower House, the real movement would, based on these numbers, deliver a very different looking Upper House, with an additional six spots and One Nation jumping above the Greens.
“This result would entirely shift the dynamics of NSW Parliament in terms of how and what legislation is passed.
“While support for One Nation is following a similar upward trend to what we’re seeing federally and in other states, Labor and Premier Minns remain in a relatively strong position.
“One Nation is growing, but The Premier is proving harder to impact, compared to some of his interstate counterparts.
“His ability to connect directly with voters and seeing the uptick in his management of key issues like cost of living is helping to limit the damage to Labor, while the poll shows that Coalition voters are driving most of One Nation’s gains.”
Notes about the Poll
*The poll of 1,038 New South Wales voters was conducted from 15 to 18 June 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.8 per cent. For more information, check out our report.
Sign up to our mailing list to stay up to date on the latest in Australian polling and research.
