The latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll shows One Nation has opened a 2 percentage point lead over Labor on primary votes for the first time, with Pauline Hanson’s party lifting to 28% while Labor’s vote remains flat at 26%.

The poll of 1,502 voters, conducted between May 15 and 20, shows One Nation up 2 percentage points since the April poll. Labor is unchanged at 26%, the Coalition is steady at 23%, the Greens are unchanged at 13%, and Others are down 2 points to 10%.

Seat projections point to hung parliament

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our January–March MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges:

• Labor: 65–74 seats
• One Nation: 47–58 seats
• Coalition: 16–28 seats
• Greens: 1–5 seats
• Others: 2–6 seats.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the poll results were reproduced at an election, the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament.

Voters view the budget negatively

Mr Hasanakos said the government’s release of the 2026 Federal Budget on May 12 had not provided the political lift Labor needed, with voters broadly negative on the budget.

“Forty-three percent of Australians rate the budget as generally bad, against just 23% who see it as generally good. That’s a difficult backdrop for a government hoping the budget would arrest its slide in support,” he said.

He said the budget’s tax changes – including ending negative gearing for new home purchases and changes to the capital gains tax discount – had failed to win majority support, with a plurality of voters believing they would hurt the economy.

“Fifty-three percent of Australians think the budget changes will make things harder for the average Australian, and 44% think they will hurt the economy. Those are sobering numbers for the Treasurer.”

Hypothetical: What happens to One Nation’s support if Hanson retires

Mr Hasanakos also noted a striking question posed in the poll about what would happen to the vote if Pauline Hanson retired and Barnaby Joyce became One Nation leader.

The results showed that in that scenario, One Nation’s primary drops from 28% to 21%, while the Coalition lifts sharply to 27% and Labor rises to 28% and the Greens rise 1 point to 14%, with the Others vote unchanged on 10%. 

“These poll results show that Pauline Hanson has a unique appeal to voters beyond those who want the strongest conservative voices. While One Nation’s initial surge was from conservative voters dissatisfied with the Coalition, since the summer One Nation has been attracting general protest voters.”

“Barnaby Joyce as leader seems to be less potent in attracting general protest voters, however his appeal still retains conservative voters in general. With Joyce as leader One Nation still polls above 20%, suggesting the strength of the One Nation brand would persist after a Hanson exit.”

“However, given the current close proximity of Labor, Coalition and One Nation, if Hanson was no longer on the scene, this would return Labor in front for the race for government and return the Coalition to the opposition benches. “

This reinforces just how central Ms Hanson is to One Nation’s electoral position,” he said.

Leadership ratings

The poll shows Anthony Albanese leads as Preferred Prime Minister at 34%, followed by Pauline Hanson at 27% and Angus Taylor at 23%. Mr Albanese’s lead has narrowed since April, with Ms Hanson rising 3 points and Mr Taylor rising 1 point.

On personal ratings, Mr Albanese’s net positive rating remains at -20%, with 27% positive and 47% negative. Mr Taylor’s net positive rating has improved to +1% (28% positive, 27% negative), up 4 points since the April poll – the strongest result for a Coalition leader since this polling series began. Ms Hanson’s net positive rating is +3% (39% positive, 36% negative), an 8-point improvement since April.

Cost of living remains by far the top issue for Australians (39%), followed by housing affordability (14%) and immigration (12%).

For more information, check out the report.

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About this poll

This poll of 1,502 respondents was carried out between 15 May and 20 May 2026. The effective margin of error is +/- 3.6%.