One Nation has opened up a 3 point primary vote lead over Labor as the Liberal/National Coalition’s vote sinks below 20%. 

The Capital Brief/DemosAU June poll shows One Nation up 2 percentage points to 30%, with Labor up 1 point to 27% and the Coalition down 5 points to 18%.

The Greens were flat at 13%, while Others were up 2 points to 12%, according to the poll of 1497 Australian voters.

Labor Retains Edge on Seat Count

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our January–March MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges:

•       Labor: 71-81 seats (from 65–74 seats in May)

•       One Nation: 54-63 seats (from 47–58 seats)

•       Coalition: 4-11 seats (from 16–28 seats) 

•       Greens: 0-4 seats (from 1–5 seats)

•       Others: 4-8 seats (from  2–6 seats)

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the poll numbers were replicated at an election, Labor would most likely be on track for either majority or minority government, but One Nation continued to edge higher in the seat projection. 

“On these numbers, One Nation would likely fall short of forming government, even with Coalition support, but a further improvement in support, or a further drop for Labor, could change the equation,” he said.

Personal Ratings

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues to hold a lead in a three way preferred PM contest against One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and Coalition leader Angus Talyor, with Albanese up 1 point to 35%, followed by Hanson on 28% (up 1) and Taylor on 19% (down four).

However, the personal ratings of all three leaders have declined since May. Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating dropped 3 points to -23% (26% positive vs 49% negative), while Ms Hanson’s rating dropped 6 points to -3 (37% positive vs 40% negative). Angus Taylor’s net positive rating was down 7 points to -7 (22% positive vs 28% negative).

Cost of living remains the dominant political issue, with 47% of respondents citing it as a top issue, followed by housing affordability and homelessness (17%) and immigration (12%).

The poll also showed support for the government’s key budget tax measures has declined over the past month. Net approval for ending negative gearing for existing properties fell 4 points to +1, scrapping the CGT discount dropped 3 points to -4, while imposing a minimum 30% tax on family trusts fell 10% to -17. The bulk of the survey was conducted before the government announced changes to some measures on Thursday.

Respondents were also asked a hypothetical question about how they would vote if new Liberal Party President Tony Abbott was the leader of the Coalition. The results showed little change from the status quo, with One Nation on 31%, followed by Labor on 26%, the L/NP on 18%, the Greens on 13% and Others on 12%.

Mr Hasanakos said the hypothetical match up showed the challenge for the Coalition as it attempts to win back its former conservative base.

“Tony Abbott is a long established conservative voice, the fact he would be unable to make a dent in One Nation’s support shows how strongly Conservatives have swung behind Ms Hanson,” he said.

“It’s also a sign of how resilient One Nation support could be, at least while Ms Hanson remains leader.”

About the poll

DemosAU surveyed 1,497 Australian voters between 16-18 June 2026. The effective margin of error is +/- 3.3%. For more information, check out our report.

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