One Nation has slipped into third place behind Labor and the Coalition with One Nation’s primary vote falling 5 points and Hanson’s net personal ratings plummeting -8% since early July, according to today’s new Capital Brief/DemosAU poll.

On a primary vote basis, Labor recorded 26% (no change since July poll), the Coalition 25% (+4%), One Nation on 24% (-5%), The Greens 12% (-2%) and Others 13% (+3%).

Hanson’s drop in support was also reflected in her personal ratings and preferred PM decline. Hanson’s net positive score is now at -17% (-8% since July) while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese improved 4 points to a -19 net positive score.

On preferred prime minister, Albanese led on 35% (no change) while Angus Taylor improved 1 point to 23% and Hanson dropped 4 points to third on 22%.

In a two-way preferred PM between Mr Albanese and Ms Hanson, Ms Hanson dropped 5 points to 32% while Albanese was on 43% (+1%). In a two way preferred PM match-up with Angus Taylor, Mr Albanese held a more modest 38%-36% lead.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll clearly showed Hanson’s support amongst women had fallen dramatically.

“In June, 39% of women had a positive view of Ms Hanson compared to 37% having a negative view. In August only 26% of women have a positive view of Ms Hanson while 52% have a negative view. In just two months Hanson’s personal ratings amongst women have gone from slightly positive to now deeply negative.

“The change in sentiment among female voters on Hanson is a major reason for One Nation’s decline in support.

“Since June, the primary vote for One Nation has fallen 10 percentage points among women compared to only 3% among men. In June Hanson’s personal ratings amongst women is now deeply negative when only two months ago it was slightly positive.

“There could be many reasons for this recent decline – we’ve had the Press Club debate, her controversial trip to Italy with Gina Rinehart, her tour of the UK, and her comments around domestic violence.”

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our May-July MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an
election, the seat results would be within the following ranges:

• Labor: 61-73 seats (from 60-72 seats in May – July MRP)
• One Nation: 26-39 seats (from 53-66 seats)
• Coalition: 32-50 seats* (from 11-22 seats)
• Greens: 0-5 seats (from 1–5 seats)
• Others: 5-10 seats (from 3-7 seats)
  *Lib 29-41, Nat 3-9
  

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said for the first time in the seat estimate series (which launched earlier this year), the Coalition is more likely to be the largest non-Labor grouping and could even return to Government with One Nation support.

“After spending 2026 contemplating life on the cross benches, these numbers will be good news for the Liberals and the Nationals.

“Labor has held steady on the seat projection since our last MRP, indicating that if an election was held last week, it could have hung on to return to government, albeit in a minority.

The drastic change in the seat estimates for the conservative parties reflects previous assessment by DemosAU that the current state of play was very fluid and moderate changes in the nation-wide primary vote shares could have dramatic outcomes for the seat count.

Mr Hasanakos said the poll showed voters were switching back to the Coalition.“

The five point decline in support for One Nation has seen the Coalition pick up most of that while Others have also gone up slightly.

“Angus Taylor can see some green shoots for his party with voters coming back to the Coalition.”

The poll of 1,562 voters was conducted between 18 to 20 August 2026.