- New Senate Modelling based on DemosAU’s MRP shows One Nation would face major barriers in the Senate, even if it was able to form government with the Coalition in the House of Representatives.
- Check out the latest episode of In the Know, from DemosAU and Amplieo for more.
A potential One Nation-led government would likely face a centre-left majority in the Senate if an election was held today, with echoes of the deadlock of the Whitlam years, according to new modelling from DemosAU.
The May-July Capital Brief/DemosAU MRP, which was based on a poll of more than 9,300 Australians, pointed to a hung parliament in the lower house, with One Nation potentially able to form government with support from the Coalition.
Applying the poll results to the Senate, DemosAU projects that One Nation would win 13 seats at a half Senate election, compared to 12 for Labor, six each for the Greens and the Coalition, and one independent (David Pocock). An additional two seats are in doubt.
Once Senators elected (to a standard six-year term) from the 2025 election are included, the model projects the make-up of the Senate would be:
- Labor: 26
- Coalition: 18:
- One Nation: 16
- Greens: 12
- Others: 2 (Pocock, Lambie)
- In doubt: 2
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said this would see Labor and the Greens holding at least 38 of the 76 seat Senate, constituting a centre-left veto if an election was held today.
“Based on our polling, One Nation has a viable path to minority government in the lower house, but would be in a very weak position in the Senate, holding just 16 of the 76 seats,” he said.
“Based on these figures the Coalition and One Nation would have 34 senators but they would also need the support of Labor or the Greens to pass legislation, including the budget.”
“It would likely be the most hostile Senate faced by a Prime Minister since Gough Whitlam in the 1970s, with a very difficult pathway ahead to pass legislation as Labor and The Greens, could join together and vote anything down.
He said the proportional voting system used in the Senate, combined with the strength of Labor’s 2025 result were key to the difficult Senate a potential One Nation Government could face in 2028.
“If the next senate election is a regular Half-Senate election then Labor would need to suffer a very heavy defeat for a One Nation-Coalition Senate bloc to pass legislation.
Mr Hasanakos added that the Coalition would be a very important part of the Senate make-up.
“A potential One Nation Government will not be able to pass anything in the Senate if the Coalition is not onside.”
In contrast, he said a Labor-led government would face a similar Senate to what it faces now to pass legislation, albeit requiring independent as well as Greens support.
The Senate modelling was released in the latest episode of DemosAU’s founders George Hasanakos and Evan Schwarten’s podcast, In the Know, produced by Amplieo.
