Modelling Shows Limited Electoral Support for Nuclear in Australia

There is no electorate in Australia where a majority of voters believe nuclear power would be good for Australia, according to new MRP modelling from DemosAU.

According to DemosAU’s model of the 150 electorates to be contested at the upcoming election, support for nuclear peaks at 46% in the Liberal-held South Australian electorate of Barker. 

However, opposition to nuclear reaches 50% in one electorate – the Tasmanian electorate of Clarke, held by independent Andrew Wilkie. 

Nuclear Polling: Support Stands at 37%

Overall, the nuclear polling, based on surveys of 3275 Australians between December and February, found 37% of Australians agree with the statement “Nuclear power would be good for Australia,” while 33% disagreed and 30% were neutral. 

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the nuclear polling showed there had been only modest changes in attitudes since Opposition Leader Peter Dutton first announced the Coalition’s plan to commission seven nuclear plants if elected.

However, he said there had been a modest momentum shift against the Coalition’s plans.

“Among women, opposition to nuclear has hardened since late last year, while men have become slightly less supportive. Overall, a little more than a third of Australians believe nuclear power would be good for Australia,” he said.

Compared to a previous DemosAU poll, published by the Australian Conservation Foundation in December, the number of women who agreed with the “Nuclear power would be good for Australia” statement remained unchanged at 26%, while the number who disagreed rose 3 points to 40%. Among men, the number who agreed fell two points to 49%, while the number who disagreed rose three points to 26%.

State by State Divides

Mr Hasanakos said the seat by seat projections showed support for the power source was strongest in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while opposition was strongest in Tasmania, Western Australia and Queensland. 

Support also falls largely along party lines: of the top 30 most pro-nuclear electorates, 27 are held by the Coalition, with the only exceptions being Labor-held Gilmore, independent-held Indi and Mayo, held by Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie.

Of the 30 electorates most opposed, 19 are held by Labor, three by the Greens, two by independents and five by the Coalition.

Mr Hasanakos said the modelling suggested there was limited electoral upside for the Coalition on the issue.

“After nine months of political debate, almost two thirds of respondents are either opposed or neutral on nuclear, which suggests there is a high mountain to climb if the goal is to win over a majority of voters to support nuclear power by the May election.”

“With 30% selecting neutral, it wouldn’t be fair to say Australians are overwhelmingly opposed to nuclear at present. However, as the side pushing for significant change, the Coalition arguably has the harder path to walk in terms of winning over those who are undecided.

Key Findings: A Nation Divided

• No electorate recorded a majority in support of nuclear power, with the highest support peaking at 46% in South Australia’s electorate of Barker.
• Opposition to the power source reached 50% in only one seat, Clark in Tasmania, suggesting a general hesitancy rather than outright rejection.
• A significant 30% of voters remain neutral on the issue, highlighting a considerable portion of the population that remains unconvinced by either side of the debate.
• Compared to previous polls, there has been a modest shift against the power source, with national support declining by one percentage point, and opposition increasing by three percentage points.
• Gender remains a significant factor, with male respondents more likely to support nuclear energy than female respondents.

Partisan Influence on Public Perception

The nuclear polling shows political affiliation is a major determinant in attitudes toward the power source. The most supportive electorates are predominantly held by the Coalition, while seats with high opposition tend to be Labor or Greens strongholds.

• Coalition voters exhibit the highest levels of support, with 55% agreeing that nuclear power would be good for Australia.
• Labor voters lean against the power source, with 41% disagreeing and only 28% in favor.
• Greens voters are the most opposed, with 47% rejecting nuclear power.
• Interestingly, 46% of undecided voters remain neutral on the issue, indicating a potential battleground for persuasion.

State-by-State Breakdown

• Strongest Support: South Australia (39%), New South Wales (38%), and Victoria (37%) show the highest levels of agreement that nuclear power would benefit Australia.
• Strongest Opposition: Tasmania (46% opposition), Western Australia (38%), and Queensland (37%) are the least receptive.
• Marginal Seats: Several electorates with tight margins show mixed opinions, which could make the policy a factor in upcoming elections.

You can access our report here.

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