NSW Poll: Coalition has 51-49% TPP Lead in Battleground State
The Liberal National Coalition has a state-wide edge over Labor in NSW ahead of the May 3 election, with a 51- 49 two-party lead (+2.4% swing from the 2022 federal election), according to new polling released today by DemosAU.
On a primary vote basis, the Liberal National Coalition leads on 38% (+1.5% swing compared to the 2022 federal election) in the state, followed by Labor on 30% (-3.4% swing), The Greens 12% (+2.0%), One Nation 9% (+4.1%) and Others 11% (-4.2%).
The poll of 1,013 NSW adults was conducted between 24 – 26 March and showed swings against Labor at both state and federal levels.
The preferred prime minister result was Anthony Albanese 39%, Peter Dutton 38% and Don’t Know 23%.
DemosAU Director of Research George Hasanakos said the NSW poll showed the state would be a key battleground in the upcoming federal election.
“The two-party swing of 2.4% to the Liberals likely puts the Coalition in front in Labor held Bennelong and Gilmore. The same swing would make the Hunter and Central Coast seats of Paterson and Roberston line ball. Labor would hold narrow leads in Parramatta, Reid, Hunter and Werriwa.
“Of course, swings are not uniform, regional variations or even unique electorate factors can change the outcome. With 5 Labor held seats in the Central Coast and Hunter Valley on margins between 2-7%, a targeted swing in this area could deliver outsized gains for the Coalition.
“A similar situation occurs in Western Sydney where 3 Labor seats are held on margins between 3.5-6.5%. In a tight election every seat counts.”
State Politics: Chris Minns-Led Labor in Leading Position
In terms of state voting intention, the NSW poll showed 54% support for Labor on a two-party preferred basis compared to 46% for the NSW Liberal National Coalition.
On a primary vote basis, the NSW Liberal National Coalition led on 34% (down 1.4%) followed by Labor on 33% (down 4.0%), Greens 14% (up 4.3%) and Others 19% (up 1.1%).
Mr Hasanakos said Labor’s 54-46 TPP lead is significantly better than other polling in recent months.
“On a first preference basis Labor has suffered a 4% swing against it, which has largely gone to the Greens.
“Despite Labor’s lead, if an election were held today, a majority Labor Government would be in doubt. Needing a net 2 seats to win a majority, a status quo result from the previous election would give the Coalition a chance in holding their 8 marginals under 3%.”
The margin of error for the poll was +/- 4.0%
Check out our NSW Poll Report for more information.
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