New federal polling released today by DemosAU shows Labor and the Coalition locked in a 50 – 50 contest, with Labor holding its vote over the Christmas period.

Political polling and market research company, DemosAU, asked 1,238 respondents “If a Federal Election was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?”

The Labor primary vote was 33% – up 1% since DemosAU’s last poll published in November. Coalition support remained unchanged at 38%, and The Greens were also unchanged at 12%. One Nation was 7% (unchanged) and Other Candidates was 10% (down 1% since the DemosAU November poll).

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor and the Coalition were split evenly at 50 – 50%.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the results were typical of governments seeking a second term.

“Our poll shows that Labor has held its vote over the Christmas period and that it is still going to be a very close election result,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“We’ve seen a very small swing of 1% to Labor’s primary vote from Others compared to our last poll published in November 2024.

“History tells us that elections of first-term incumbents are always very tight – it comes with the territory of incumbency.”

The internet panel poll ran from 28 January to 1 February. The effective margin of error was +/- 3.7%. 

Please see our methodology statements for more information.