The Coalition and Labor are tied in a 50 – 50 race in a new federal voting intention poll released today by political polling and market research company, DemosAU.
Australian adults were asked “If a Federal Election was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?”
Coalition support increased by 2% since the last election (38% primary vote) and the Labor primary vote held steady at 32% (0.5% swing). The Greens were unchanged at 12%. One Nation was 7% (up 2%) and Other Candidates was 11% (down 3.5%).
On a two-party preferred basis, Labor (50%) suffered a two per cent swing since the last election.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the tight contest matched the typical polling trajectory of federal governments.
“It’s a 50 – 50 race and this is typical of governments seeking a second term,’’ he said.
“In 1998, 2010 and 2016 first-term governments were narrowly returned to office.
“The question is whether the Australian precedent will hold, given the global trend of incumbent governments losing office due to the post-covid inflationary economic environment. Will voters’ muscle memory to return a first term government be erased by hip pocket pain?
Mr Hasanakos said Coalition and One Nation were winning back voters who had parked their vote with Others over the past few years.
“The general primary vote trend compared to the last election is that the Coalition and One Nation are picking up votes from Others and this is making the Coalition more competitive.”
A total of 1,038 Australian electors took part in the poll which ran for three days, from 19 November to 21 November. The effective margin of error was +/- 4.2%.
