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• For an overview of the topline results and gender trends, check out our report
• Listen in to next week’s In the Know podcast for a deep dive on these results.

A mega-poll of 9,343 voters shows One Nation would be within arms reach of forming government with the support of the Coalition, if an election was held today. 

DemosAU’s Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, which uses polling data from May to July 2026, shows One Nation on 30% (+3% since DemosAU’s Feb/March MRP poll) , Labor 26% (-3%), LNP 21% (no change), Greens 13% (+1%)  and Others 10% (-1%).

Published today in Capital Brief, the poll shows Australia would be headed for a finely balanced hung parliament with both Labor and One Nation having strong claims to form government, if the results were reflected at an election, according to DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos.

The MRP projects results for all 150 individual federal seats and provides an overall seat projection with ranges for each party.

Based on a Monte-Carlo probability analysis of 20,000 simulations, it shows if a federal election was held now, Labor would win 60-72 seats, One Nation would win 53-66 seats, Coalition 11–22 seats (Liberal 11-20, Nationals 0-2), Greens 1-5 seats, and Others 3-7.

The MRP projects, based on a two-candidate preferred vote, the ‘notional’ leader in each seat and categorises those seats as either “firm” (strongly favoured to win), “lean” (moderate chance of winning) or “in doubt” (too close to call).

To win government a party needs to win a minimum 76 seats — more than half of the total 150 seats. Of this, 45 seats are classified as Inner Metro, 64 as Outer Metro, and 41 as Regional/Rural.

• In regional / rural seats, One Nation leads on 41% primary vote, Liberals 20%, Labor 18%, Greens 9% and 12% Others. The MRP indicates that One Nation is leading in 39 of the 41 seats with a live possibility of a clean sweep of all 41 seats.

• In inner metro seats, Labor leads on 31% primary vote, followed by Liberals 21%, The Greens 18%, One Nation 19% and Others 11%. Labor still retains a strong advantage under the MRP in these seats leading in 34 of the 45 seats.
• In outer metro seats — the seats which are most likely to decide government — One Nation leads on 30% primary vote, Labor 28%, Liberals 21%, Greens 12% and Others 9%. The MRP model indicates Labor still retains 34 of the 64 Outer Metro seats however One Nation has made significant inroads leading in 21 seats. 

“The most significant finding of the MRP is that One Nation is now leading across many Outer Metro seats in Brisbane and Perth and also a few in outer Sydney and Outer Melbourne,” Mr Hasanakos said. 

“It is in these seats which One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.

State by State Differences

The MRP also indicated significant state differences in the parties’ standings.

“One Nation has the strongest support in Queensland and Western Australia and are also doing well in Tasmania,” Mr Hasanakos said 

“The Coalition has halved the primary gap between itself and One Nation in Victoria and is only trailing by three percentage points. Of the 13 seats where it is leading, eight of these are in Victoria. 

“One Nation’s strongest state is Queensland, where it has risen to 34% and is leading in 20 of the state’s 30 seats according to the MRP model. 

“While One Nation leads in all eight of the regional and rural Victorian seats, of the five held by the Coalition, One Nation does not have a firm lead in any. Outside of Page in NSW, the Nationals have the best chance of retaining seats in Victoria.

“In Western Australia, One Nation’s primary vote has risen five percentage points, mostly at the expense of Labor, cementing its lead in Bullwinkel and giving it strong chances in Moore and Pearce against Labor.

“In Tasmania, One Nation has a similar swing to it, propelling it into the lead in the three Northern and Central Tasmanian seats with Labor only holding a firm lead in Franklin.

Demographic Trends

The demographic trends also indicated interesting underlying changes flowing on from recent federal political debate.

“Labor’s relative support among women has worsened in this quarter’s MRP with its vote among women falling 4 percentage points compared to just two among men. 

“One Nation’s gender gap has shifted relatively towards Men with a four percentage point rise compared to just two among women.

Shifts among higher income voters indicated One Nation was seeing a surge in support among higher income voters.

“Since the last quarter, One Nation has seen its vote rise 8 percentage points among respondents earning over $200K a year, while their vote among those earning under $45K only rose by 1 percentage point.

“Conversely Labor’s vote share has fallen more as the respondent’s income has increased, which indicates an impact from the public reaction about the recent budget tax changes.

The two-candidate preferred estimates in the MRP model was based on a mix of previous election and respondent allocated preferences. 

“In the last quarter we are seeing that One Nation votes are flowing more strongly to the Coalition at 80%, compared to only 67% of Coalition votes flowing to One Nation as preferences.

“There are a minority cohort of Liberal voters in metropolitan Australia that are averse to One Nation, and their preferences are keeping Labor from falling behind in the race for government at this point.

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