• DemosAU MRP Model projects results for all 150 individual federal seats 
• One Nation rise: Approximately 1 in 5 Coalition voters from 2025 federal election now intend to vote for One Nation
• Final result: Labor leads Coalition 56 – 44 per cent 2PP

A new DemosAU MRP Model – first published in Capital Brief – estimates One Nation would win 12 seats if a federal election was held now, overtaking the Nationals to become the third biggest political party in Australia.

Based on a survey of 6,928 voters conducted between October 5 to November 11  —  the most comprehensive poll carried out since the election  — this research suggests major trouble for the Coalition, with approximately 1 in 5 Coalition voters planning to switch their vote to One Nation.

The parliament would be made up of 98 seats for Labor, 29 for the Coalition (21 Liberals, 8 Nationals), 12 for One Nation and 11 for independents and other minor parties. The Greens would be left with no seats.

Projections for Every Electorate

The DemosAU MRP model, estimated an election result in all 150 House of Representative electorates and categorised them as either “Firm” (Strongly favoured to win), “Lean” (moderate chance of winning) or “In Doubt” (too close to call) (see “More about this poll” below).

According the the model, One Nation would pick up Capricornia, Flynn and Wright in Queensland and were likely to pick up Hinkler and Wide Bay in Queensland, and Lyne, Parkes and Riverina in New South Wales.

Marginal seats which were too close to call but where One Nation leads include Calare (NSW), Canning (WA), Grey (SA) and Groom (Queensland).

Marginal seats where One Nation is behind but could win include: Dawson, Forde, Longman, and Maranoa (Queensland), Forrest (WA), and Hunter (NSW).

Overall Primary and 2PP Results

The poll used for the MRP model shows One Nation’s vote surging to 17 per cent (up by 10.6 per cent from the 2025 election), with Labor 33 per cent (down 1.6 per cent) and the 

Coalition 24 per cent (down 7.6 per cent). With the Greens at 13 per cent (up 0.8 per cent) and Others at 13% (down 2 per cent).

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition 56 – 44 per cent — a swing to Labor of 0.8 per cent.

The nationwide two-party swing of just under 1 per cent to Labor comprises a swing to Labor of 2.6 per cent in Queensland, 1.6 per cent in Victoria, 0.8 per cent in South Australia and 0.7 per cent in Tasmania. There was little TPP change in NSW and WA.

Poll Points to Major Shift in Australian Politics

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the result showed a major shift in Australian politics.

“The DemosAU MRP central forecast shows that One Nation would win 12 seats, overtaking the Nationals which would fall to 8 seats,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“This would be the party’s best seat share since its 1998 Queensland election result of 11 seats (12% of Legislative Assembly) off 23 per cent of the vote, and would also be the most significant third party result in the House of Representatives since Lang Labor in 1934.

“The shift to One Nation is strongest among over 55’s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.”

“The other striking feature about the competitiveness of One Nation is that it can win seats outside of Queensland. One Nation is ahead or competitive in at least one seat in every mainland state.”

Mr Hasanakos said some caution needed to be taken when looking at the results.

“While we estimate 12 seats for One Nation, this is inside a wide range based on the safety status of the seat. One Nation is only the firm leader in three seats, while it is at least a small chance or better in up to 34 seats, though it is trailing in 16 seats of these, according to the model’s central forecast.”

See Who Are the Voters Swinging to One Nation for more on the demographic trends driving this surge.

Notes: More About This Poll

The DemosAU Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) Model is based on a poll of 6,928 respondents surveyed between 5 October and 11 November, 2025.  The MRP model generated primary vote share estimates for all 150 House of Representative electorates.

The poststratification frame for the MRP model used Age, Gender, Education, Income, State, Region and 2025 Federal Election Vote as the relevant demographic information.

Two-Candidate Preferred results for each seat were estimated based on relevant preference flows at the 2025 Federal Elections.

The electorate vote shares indicated by the DemosAU MRP should be considered with a confidence interval at 95% probability of +/- 5%. To reflect this uncertainty, each seat is classified based on the strength of the result in the following three categories;

• In Doubt – Any seat where the winning TCP is 50-51%, or a trailing candidate can win with an increase in their vote of between 0-2%.
• Lean – Any seat where the winning TCP is between 52-54%, or a trailing candidate can win with an increase in their vote of between 2-4%.
• Firm – All seats not classified as Lean or In Doubt.

Read the Full Report.

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