A surge in support for One Nation has split the Conservative vote in New South Wales, as Premier Chris Minns’ personal popularity puts Labor in a strong position, despite voter concerns about the government’s handling of major issues.

The latest state voting intention poll shows Labor leading on a primary vote basis while the Coalition and One Nation are almost tied.

The lower house primary vote results were: Labor 34% (-3.0% swing since last election), LNP 23% (-12.4% swing), One Nation 21% (+19.2% swing), The Greens 15% (+2% swing) and Others 7% (-9.1% swing).

If preferences flowed as per the 2023 state election this would result in a two-party preferred of 61-39% to Labor. However, this figure should be treated with caution due to the dramatically changed One Nation vote and the Optional Preferential Voting system used for NSW state elections.

Chris Minns is up four percent on preferred premier since our October poll, leading Opposition Liberal Leader Kellie Sloane 48-24%.

Mr Minns had a net positive rating of +21% among voters, while Ms Sloane’s rating was +3%, a six point improvement from the -3% rating previous leader Mark Speakman recorded in October.

In the Upper House, Labor leads with 29% of the vote followed by One Nation on 22% and the Liberal-National Coalition on 21%.

Notably, 48% of voters thought New South Wales was headed in the wrong direction compared to 30% who said the state was going in the right direction

Cost of living/inflation again topped the poll as the biggest issue facing the state today, with 42% nominating it first in the open-ended question compared to 36% who nominated cost of living in the October poll.

The Minns’ state government was rated poorly by voters on cost of living (net satisfactory core -60%), housing (-52%), energy and electricity (-32%) and crime (-32%).

Regarding protest laws, 42% of voters said the government was doing an unsatisfactory job. On anti-semitism, 37% rated the government’s performance as unsatisfactory.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the split in the conservative vote was “diabolical.”

“This is the first time we’ve included One Nation in our state voting intention poll and we can see the One Nation vote surging in NSW as it’s doing elsewhere across the country.

“Both the LNP and One Nation are almost tied on primary votes which shows how split conservative voters are.

“While it is possible that the large shift of conservative voters to One Nation may improve its preference flows to the Coalition, history has shown that when the vote of one side of politics is split under OPV, it benefits the other major party.”

“While Minns’ preferred premier score has improved, we can see many voters are not satisfied with the government’s performance on key issues like cost of living, housing, crime and even the recent protest laws.

“For the Liberals, Ms Sloane has a slightly improved personal rating compared to the former Liberal leader Mark Speakman.”

The Upper House result was even more favourable for One Nation, with Labor on 29%, the populist party on 22% marginally leading the Coalition on 21%.

“If this result was reflected at the next Legislative Council election, the Coalition would only win 4 seats, The Nationals who have the 2nd and 5th spots on the Coalition ticket, would only win 1 seat.”

PremierNational Partner Kathryn Conroy said the rise in Chris Minns’ ratings was an endorsement of the Premier’s leadership style and sharp political judgement.

“Politics is ultimately a popularity contest, and Chris Minns’ rising preferred premier numbers show he’s winning that contest,” Ms Conroy said.

“Being on the rise twelve months out from an election is exactly where an incumbent premier wants to be, and it suggests voters are continuing to reward Minns’ leadership.”

Notes about the Poll

*The poll of 1,032 New South Wales voters was conducted from 24 February to 04 March 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.6 per cent. 

Please see our report for more information.

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