A new DemosAU Tasmanian state poll shows support for the Liberal Government has fallen six percentage points since November, while support for Independents and minor parties has increased.

The poll, conducted from 27 January to 12 February of 1,071 Tasmanian voters, shows that on a primary vote basis, the Liberals are on 35% (-6% swing since the last DemosAU poll and -4.9% swing from the last election) while Labor is on 23% (-1% point since our last poll and – 2.9% since the election).

Support for Independents has risen to 17% (+3% from Oct poll), the Greens to 15% (steady), and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers to 4% (+2%) and “Any Other Candidate” is on 6% (+2%). 

DemosAU did not include One Nation in the voting intention as One Nation is not a registered party for Tasmanian elections.

On the question of preferred premier, Jeremy Rockliff leads Josh Willie 43% to 32%.

On the personal ratings Premier Jeremy Rockliff recorded a net positive rating of +2 (37% positive, 35% negative), while Opposition Leader Josh Willie recorded a net -7 (21% positive, 28% negative).

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the Liberals’ result reflected mounting pressures on the government.

“The government has been returned to office for over half a year now and the challenges it faces with the state’s finances and dealing with a hung parliament are starting to weigh on its vote with a fall in its support of six percentage points since our last poll.

“The populist insurgency on the mainland is casting a shadow over Tasmanian politics even as One Nation is not a registered party for state elections. The poll indicates an increase in support for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Independents and Others.

“Looking at the changes in the vote by demographics, the Liberal losses are concentrated among voters under 55 years of age which could be due to the resolution of the stadium issue which was relatively more popular amongst younger voters.

“Despite the fall in the vote for the Liberal Government, Labor isn’t making any headway at this time.”

Notes: The poll of 1,071 Tasmanian voters was conducted from 27 January to 12 February 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.6 per cent.

Please see our report for more information.

Sign up to our mailing list to stay up to date on the latest in Australian polling and market research.