Coalition failing to pick up target seats in Sydney and Melbourne, new poll shows
New polling released by DemosAU shows the Liberal Party are failing to pick up votes in the Sydney and Melbourne electorates that were seen as its most likely path to victory at the May 3 election.
DemosAU conducted polls of two baskets of seats to get a clearer picture of voting trends in key electorates, surveying 924 voters across the Melbourne electorates of Bruce, Dunkley and Hawke between April 13 and 22, and 905 voters across the Sydney electorates of Reid, Parramatta and Werriwa between April 13 and 27.
The Melbourne poll showed a 7.2% primary swing against Labor to 32%, but the Liberal vote increased only 1% to 31%, with the remainder going to the Greens and minor parties.
On a two party preferred basis, the poll suggests an aggregate 3.5% to the Liberals compared to the last election, resulting in Labor 53% to the Liberals’ 47%.
Across the Sydney electorates, Labor suffered a swing of 4.3% to 36%, while the Liberal vote dropped 7.4% since 2022 to 28%, with an 8.7% shift towards independent candidates at 11%.
On a two-party preferred basis, the poll showed an aggregate 1.3% swing towards Labor at 56% versus the Liberals on 44%.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the electorates polled were among those the Coalition would have hoped to win to have a chance of forming government.
“These polls suggest the Liberals are only a chance of making marginal gains in Victoria, and going backwards in Sydney marginals. It’s hard to see what Peter Dutton’s path to the lodge is if these numbers are replicated at the ballot box,” he said.
However, he said the rising vote share of independents and minor party candidates left Labor more reliant on preferences than ever, which could complicate results on election night.
“Labor clearly has the edge in these seats, but the high independent and minor party votes does raise a level of uncertainty as to preference flows,” he said.
The margin of error for both polls was +/-4.9%.
For more information, check out the Methadological Statements and Tables for our Sydney and Melbourne polls.
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