New polling released today shows the Malinauskas government easily on track for re-election, despite losing ground to One Nation during the election campaign period.
The DemosAU/Ace Strategies final pre-election poll of 1,242 South Australians shows Labor on a primary vote of 37% (-6% change since February poll), One Nation 23% (+4%), Liberal 17% (-1%), The Greens 11% (-1%) and Others 12% (+4%).
The surge in support for One Nation means the Liberals stay in third place and are at risk of being replaced as the official opposition.
Peter Malinauskas leads Ashton Hurn on preferred premier 56-21%.
A total of 46% of South Australians believe the Malinauskas Labor Government deserves to be re-elected, compared to 28% who disagreed.
A quarter of voters now say One Nation is ready to govern, compared to 18% for the Liberals.
A break-down of the primary vote by region shows One Nation leading the Liberals in regional/rural South Australia, 39% to 15% respectively. In Outer Metro, 38% of voters intend to vote Labor, 24% for One Nation and 15% for the Liberals.
One Nation also leads the Liberals among voters who identify as centrist, but trail both major parties among those who identify as right wing. Labor leads all other parties among left wing and centrist voters, as well as those who don’t identify with an ideology.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while the campaign had dented Labor’s lead, they were still on track for a big victory.
“The Labor vote has fallen throughout the campaign as One Nation’s momentum has grown and numerous independents and minor parties have thrown their hat in the ring,” Mr Hasanakos said.
“Despite this there is an underlying positive sentiment towards Labor where more people believe the state is heading in the right direction and voters overall have a positive view of Mr Malinauskas.
“Malinauskas leads Hurn as preferred premier 46-21% among Independent voters, 41-14% among minor party voters and even 32-29% among One Nation voters.”
Mr Hasanakos said the South Australian election was a major test in how the One Nation vote would materialise.
“The big question on Saturday night will be how high One Nation can go and how strongly One Nation voters preference the Liberals or whether they put Labor second.
“One Nation has increased its lead over the Liberals since our last poll and this gives them a chance to be the largest opposition party but this is dependent on preference flows.”
“In regional seats, One Nation has the capacity to poll above 30%. However unless they get near 50% they will need preferences from other candidates to win. Preference flows to One Nation will be a mixed bag and will most likely come from the Liberals, but they need the Liberals to run third to have their preferences distributed.
“Conversely, in Adelaide’s eastern and southern suburbs where the Liberals are battling to save their seats, a strong flow of preferences from One Nation voters will be vital. However, One Nation’s open how-to-vote ticket and Malinauskas’ appeal to the centre and right of the political spectrum will be a challenge for the Liberals.”
Ace Strategies Managing Director Matt Neagle said that despite the softening in Labor’s primary vote, Peter Malinauskas retains a commanding lead as preferred premier and remains significantly more popular than his opponents.
“The decision to elevate Ashton Hurn hasn’t delivered the honeymoon the Liberals needed. Her numbers are flat, and the party’s primary vote remains deeply depressed.”
“This poll shows the Liberals are defending on two fronts – Labor in the suburbs and One Nation in the regions. That’s an incredibly difficult position for any Opposition.”
Notes about this poll:
The poll of 1,242 South Australia voters was conducted from 12 to 18 March 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.4 per cent.
Please see our report for more information.
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