Poll Slide leaves Labor and One Nation tied on 26% Primary

• Check out our In the Know podcast for a deeper discussion of this poll.

The latest Capital Brief/DemosAU poll shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped to 26%, leaving it tied with One Nation.

The poll of 1,439 voters, conducted between April 9 and 14, shows Labor’s primary is down 3 percentage points since February.

One Nation’s primary has also declined 2 percentage points, while the Coalition has lifted 2 points to 23%. The Greens vote is up 1 point to 13%, while Others are up 2 points to 12%. 

Seat Projections

DemosAU has produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our January-March MRP model published in Capital Brief.

Based on 20,000 simulations, we estimate that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges: 

• Labor: 68-78 seats
• One Nation: 40-51 seats
• Coalition: 16-30 seats
• Greens: 1-4 seats
• Others: 3-8 seats.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said if the poll results were reproduced at an election, the most likely result would be a hung parliament or small Labor majority if an election was held today.

He said the government’s support had been weighed down by the impacts of the global energy crisis, caused by the Iran War.

“Despite the government acting by cutting the fuel tax excise and attempting to reassure Australians about fuel supplies, Mr Albanese has failed to win over voters and has instead seen support for Labor drop even further.” 

He said the results suggested the Coalition’s decision to change its leadership from Sussan Ley and David Littleproud to Angus Taylor and Matthew Canavan had been an effective reset for the centre right parties.

“Since we launched our regular national polling series late last year, this is the first time we’ve seen the Coalition gain ground, and One Nation go backwards,” he said.

“The Coalition is regaining some of the ground it has lost and there is now a genuine competition underway for voters on the right.”

Leadership ratings

The poll showed Anthony Albanese still leads as preferred prime minister (35%) in a three way contest with Pauline Hanson (24%) and Angus Taylor (22%).

However, Mr Albanese has a net positive rating of -20% (-3% since Feb 26 poll), with only 26% of voters having a positive view of the Prime Minister (-3% since Feb 26 poll).

By comparison, Ms Hanson’s net positive rating is -5% (34% positive, 39% negative), a four point decline since February, while Mr Taylor’s rose 1 point to -3% (25% positive, 28% negative).

Mr Hasanakos said the decline in Ms Hanson’s rating and the One Nation primary vote, were a sign that One Nation’s rise in the polls may be losing steam. 

“We can only spot a peak after the fact, but it’s very possible the surge in support we’ve seen for One Nation and Ms Hanson may be losing momentum.”

Australians were polled on the leadership attributes of all three leaders, with Ms Hanson polling more favourably on almost all qualities compared to Mr Albanese and Mr Taylor.

A total of 58% of Australians thought Ms Hanson was decisive and strong (compared to 26% for Mr Albanese and 33% for Mr Taylor), while 37% believed she was trustworthy compared to 30% for Mr Albanese and 24% for Mr Taylor.

But more Australians believed Ms Hanson was arrogant (42%) compared to 37% for Mr Albanese and 25% for Mr Taylor.

Please see our report for more information or check out our In the Know Podcast.

About this poll

This poll of 1,439 respondents was carried out between 9 April and 14 April 2026. The effective margin of error is +/- 3.3%.

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