• Labor’s primary vote is steady on 32% in the latest DemosAU/PremierNational Victoria Poll.
• The Coalition has lifted 5 points to 25%, while One Nation is down 4 points to 23%.
• For more details, see our report.

Premier Chris Minns’ Labor has retained its clear polling lead, while the Coalition has bounced back to second place at the expense of One Nation in the latest DemosAU/PremierNational Poll.

The poll of 1,028 NSW voters, conducted from August 19-26, shows Labor on a primary vote of 32% (unchanged from June), with the Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane led Coalition up 5 points to 25% and One Nation down 4 points to 23%. The Greens are steady at 13%, with Others down 1% at 7%.

On a two-party preferred basis, using 2023 State election preference flows, Labor leads the Coalition 57-43%.* (See note at bottom). 

Mr Minns holds a clear 44-26 lead over Ms Sloane as preferred premier, though both leaders hold net positive ratings (+15 for Mr Minns and +5 for Ms Sloane).

However, almost 1 in 2 NSW voters (49%) believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 28% who believe it is headed in the right direction.

Cost of living remains the dominant issue, with 46% of respondents identifying it as the top issue, followed by housing and homelessness (20%).

A clear majority of voters mark down the state government’s handling on both issues, with 69% saying it is doing an unsatisfactory job of handling cost of living and 60% saying the same for housing.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said that Labor’s lead heavily relied on a divided right-of-centre voter base.

“With Labor on 32% primary, its large lead after preferences is contingent on large shares of Coalition and One Nation voters exhausting their voters instead of preferencing each other.”

“Whether this occurs depends on whether Coalition and One Nation are willing to make preference recommendations to each other on their how-to-vote cards.”

“While this occurred at the last federal election, this is not a certainty at a state level. Optional Preferential Voting gives parties and voters extra options in the preferencing. 

“One Nation also has issued an open ticket at the recent SA state election earlier this year, so there is precedent for One Nation to not direct its preferences to the Coalition.

“Despite poor results on many issues and a strong mood that the state is going in the wrong direction, the strength of Premier Minns’ leadership has kept Labor in the lead.

“Kellie Sloane has reaped the benefit of One Nation’s federal fall of support among women. The overall shift of voter support from One Nation to the state coalition has been primarily among women.

“Now back in front of One Nation, Sloane and the Coalition now have an opportunity to make the state election a real contest if they can harness voter discontent.

PremierNational Partner Lachlan Crombie said the poll shows a contest being reshaped on one side of politics while Labor holds steady.

“Premier Minns remains in the best position of any leader in this poll. Labor’s primary vote hasn’t moved since June, and he leads as preferred Premier 44 to 26 percent.

“While the Minns Government maintains a stable position out in front, the defining dynamic in New South Wales right now is the battle for second place. The Coalition is up 5 per cent and One Nation is down 4 per cent, with almost all of the movement between those two. Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane is winning back voters the Coalition lost after 2023, and the shift is strongest among women, mortgage holders and metropolitan voters, which is exactly where the Coalition has to be competitive.

“One Nation’s vote is strongest in regional New South Wales, where it is on 32 per cent, ahead of both major parties. That is where the Coalition’s recovery has to go next, and it is a job for the Nationals as much as the Liberals.

“The 57 to 43 percent two-party preferred lead, coupled with overwhelming support for the gun buyback scheme, shows the public is backing Premier Minns’s leadership. With New South Wales the first state to formally commit to the national scheme, the Premier has secured a decisive 55 per cent of voters supporting his position on this reform.”