NSW Labor has jumped out to a large lead over the NSW Liberal National Coalition, leading 59 – 41 per cent on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis, according to a new DemosAU/PremierNational poll.

The poll shows a five per cent TPP swing to Labor since DemosAU’s March 2025 NSW state voting intention poll. 

While the primary vote for Labor remained almost unchanged since the last election at 37 per cent, the Coalition’s dropped -5.4 per cent.

In the preferred premier result, Labor’s Chris Minns leads Liberal Opposition Leader Mark Speakman 44 – 25, suggesting a strengthening leadership profile for Minns.

Cost of living is the top priority amongst NSW voters at 36 per cent, with housing affordability a strong second at 25 per cent.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said NSW Labor is performing better than the party usually does with several important demographics.

“Labor is doing really well with men, people aged 35 – 54, home owners and people with a personal income over $125k a year, suggesting Minns’ appeal goes beyond that of a typical Labor leader,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“Combine that with Minns’ strengthening leadership profile which has grown after taking firm stances on issues including housing, corrections reform and protest laws.

“However, with the rising Greens vote since the last election, Minns and Labor seem to be losing votes on their left flank.”

Mr Hasanakos said the Opposition’s instability after a poor result at the Kiama by-election and losing votes to the One Nation, even at a state level, could spell trouble for the Opposition.

“With optional preferential voting in NSW, this could have a significant impact on the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote,” he said.

In the Upper House, Labor is polling 30 per cent and the Coalition 21 per cent, indicating voters’ willingness to explore minor party options.

“One Nation has polled 15 per cent which is enough for three MLCs while Family First is polling five per cent – enough to elect a single member in the Upper House,” he said.

“Based on this poll the Labor government would need more than the Greens to get legislation through the Upper House after the next election.

PremierNational Partner and CEO Lachlan Crombie said the result shows Premier Minns and his Government have clearly strengthened their standing with voters through strong leadership and clear direction.

“Minns’ laser-like focus on housing is paying off, and this is evident in what the voters are saying, extending his lead over the Opposition,” Mr Crombie said.

“The results are particularly challenging for the Opposition, with the two-party-preferred vote falling almost five points. That represents a serious deterioration in support and highlights the scale of the challenge they now face in reconnecting with voters,” Mr Crombie said.

“The real challenge for the Opposition is that homeowners, higher-income earners and voters aged 35 to 54 are now firmly behind the Minns Government. To win them back, they’ll need to zero in on the key issues of cost-of-living and housing affordability,” Mr Crombie said.

About this poll

The poll of 1,016 NSW voters was conducted via internet panel from 17 October – 22 October 2025. The effective margin of error was +/- 4.0%.

Read the methodology statement here.

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