DemosAU’s first poll of the Australian Capital Territory shows Labor leading on primary votes while the Liberals have suffered a big swing, according to a poll of 979 ACT voters.
On a primary vote basis, Labor leads on 32% (-2.1% swing since 2024 election), Liberals 21% (-12.5%), Independent 19% (+6.1%), One Nation** 14% (+14%), The Greens 11% (-1.2%), and Others 3% (-4.3%).
Voters who did not vote for Labor or Liberal were then asked who they would support to form government if no party wins a majority of seats.
Of the 19% of Independent voters, 42% said they would support a Labor government, 32% said neither, and 18% would support a Liberal government.
Of the 14% of One Nation voters, 41% said they would support a Liberal government, 47% neither and 7% Labor.
Of the 11% of Greens voters, 65% said they would support a Labor government, 24% neither, and 6% Liberals.
Andrew Barr (Labor) leads Mark Paton (Liberal) 46-32% as preferred chief minister.
In the ACT, Hare-Clark is used to elect 25 members across five multi-member electorates. These electorates—Brindabella, Ginninderra, Kurrajong, Murrumbidgee, and Yerrabi—each elect 5 members.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while Labor was most likely to retain government, a single party majority was out of reach on the poll results.
“While ACT Labor’s vote has gone down slightly in this poll, it would still likely form the next government based on these poll results.
“It could still hold all 10 seats it currently has, although it should be concerned in electorates where it didn’t make 2 quotas in 2024 such as Yerrabri.
“However, the Canberra Liberals which were facing a hard task to dislodge a 25 year old government, now have the added frustration of One Nation taking votes off it. On these poll results the populist party would probably take seats off it as well.
“We also asked non-major party voters who they wanted the MPs they voted for to support in government. Despite the small sub-samples the verdict was clear; Greens voters overwhelmingly want to support Labor, One Nation voters want no truck with Labor, while Independent voters lean to Labor,” Hasanakos added.
“With the Canberra Liberals only guaranteed to win 1 MLA in each of the 5 electorates on these poll results, a One Nation contingent in the Legislative Assembly would make attracting enough independents to form government an almost impossible task.
“However for Labor to retain office it will likely have to deal with independents as well as Greens given the rise in the independent vote in this poll.
PremierNational Partner Kathryn Conroy said the poll results showed the Barr government in a position of relative strength compared to other long term incumbents.
“The fact that Labor remains in a leading position after more than 25 years in government is a remarkable position.
“These are challenging times for incumbent governments everywhere but this result suggests voters hold the government and its track record in relatively high regard.
“Canberra remains one of the world’s most liveable cities and a great place to live and work. In that sense it’s not surprising we don’t see the same mood for change we see in other states.”
Notes about this poll
This poll was self-commissioned by DemosAU and PremierNational.
The poll of 979 Australians voters was conducted from 2 to 16 July 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 3.8 per cent. For more information, check out our report.
*Compared to the 2024 result of 12.9% combined from Independents for Canberra, Fiona Carrick Independents, Strong Independents and Ungrouped Independents.
**Whilst One Nation is not yet registered for Territory elections it has been included in the Territory VI answer options as it has publicly indicated it will register to contest the 2028 ACT Territory election.
