By George Hasanakos

The way I see it there are two paths to majority government for Labor and the Coalition.

From a base of 58 seats the Coalition needs to win another 18 seats to win a majority. In NSW and Victoria combined, there are 20 seats with margins of 8% or less. With a national swing of 2 – 3% this may seem a bridge too far, but with significant swings in the other states not expected, the national swing will be concentrated in these states.

Also most of these seats on higher margins are in outer metro Sydney and Melbourne or their nearby regions with similar demographic features. Also the Coalition would hope to gain a few seats elsewhere; Tangney and Bulwinkel in WA, Boothby in SA, Lyons in Tasmania and in the wake of the last NT election, Lingiari and Solomon.

That’s a battleground of 26 seats, where the Coalition only needs 18. With a slightly better national vote share on polling day and larger swings in outer metro Sydney and Melbourne, it could be done.

Conversely for Labor, their chances of a majority are better than many commentators credit. Labor starts at 77 seats. Aston is notionally Liberal on 2022 election results, but was won by Labor at a by-election.

The recent YouGov MRP indicates the three Green inner Brisbane seats are in play for Labor. Also further gains off the Coalition are possible in Queensland. This week DemosAU published a poll indicating a 1% two-party swing to Labor in Queensland. There are five LNP marginals with margins under 4% including Leichhardt which is an open seat with the retirement of Warren Entsch. 

Then there is Tasmania, which has been the harbinger of shock Government returns to office such as Keating in 1993, and Morrison in 2019. Bass is ever marginal despite the reputation of Bridget Archer and Braddon is an open seat.

With a 50-50 national result it is possible for Labor to win five or so seats to offset limited losses in NSW and Victoria. Finally there is the friend of first term incumbents everywhere, the sophomore surge, which will help some Labor marginal first term MPs resist the tide.