Coalition Loses Further Ground to One Nation , but Labor Dominates in Seat Projections
Support for the Coalition parties has continued to slide according to a new DemosAU poll which shows One Nation surpassing the Coalition by three percentage points.
The Capital Brief/DemosAU poll of 1,933 Australians conducted from 13 to 21 January 2026 published in Capital Brief today, shows primary votes of Labor 30%, One Nation 24%, the Coalition 21%, Greens 13% and Others 12%.
Compared to DemosAU’s early January poll, Labor and One Nation have lifted their respective primary votes by 1% while the Coalition slipped backwards by 2%.
The Greens and Others recorded primary votes of 13% and 12% respectively.
The poll was conducted before last week’s Coalition split.
The poll also showed more Australians would prefer Pauline Hanson (26%) as Prime Minister over Sussan Ley (16%), though Anthony Albanese leads both on 36%.
Ms Hanson had a net positivity rating of -5%, compared to Mr Albanese (-14%) and Ms Ley (-18%).
One Nation Surge Continues
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the results showed the momentum in One Nation’s surge had continued since the previous DemosAU poll on January 5-6.
He said if the results were replicated at an election, Labor would win comfortably, while One Nation would likely become the largest opposition party and therefore become the official opposition.
To give a better indication of how the fragmented contest would play out at a seat level, DemosAU produced a seat projection, based on a Monte Carlo probability analysis, assuming uniform national swings since our October/November MRP model. Find out more about our methodology.
Based on 20,000 simulations, we assess that if these poll numbers were replicated at an election, the seat results would be within the following ranges:
- Labor: 87-95 seats
- One Nation: 29-36 seats
- Liberals: 9-18 seats
- Nationals: 1-5 seats
- Greens: 0-2 seats
- Others: 6-11 seats
“These projections demonstrate the dominance of Labor, given the current fragmentation on the right of Australian politics. With a primary of 30%, the ALP would be on track for a similar majority to the one they currently hold,” he said.
“Meanwhile, One Nation would emerge as clearly the second largest party, mostly by taking seats off the former Coalition parties.”
The Voters Driving the One Nation Surge
Mr Hasanakos said One Nation’s strongest cohorts were those with a high school level education, those living in regional and rural areas and those aged over 55.
These are cohorts where the Coalition has typically been strongest in recent decades, which explains why the party’s surge has had such an impact on the primary votes of the Liberals and Nationals.
However, Mr Hasanakos said that, contrary to some reporting, there was little to no gender divide in terms of support for the party.
“Over several polls, we’ve seen One Nation’s support among women to be almost as high as its support among men. The current poll shows 24% of women would vote for One Nation, compared to 25% of men.”
“This contrasts with the picture in other countries, where there has been a clearer divide in support for populist right wing parties among men and women.”
About this poll
The poll of 1,933 Australians was conducted via internet panels from 13 to 21 January 2026 with an effective margin of error of +/- 2.8% for the primary votes.
Please see our Report for more information.
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