Large final Australian election poll gives Labor the edge, despite swings against majors

DemosAU has today released its final pre-election poll ahead of the Federal Election tomorrow, Saturday 3 May.

The poll of 4,100 Australian adults conducted between 27 to 30 April 2025 shows Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis.

On these results, Labor is more likely to return to government with a slim majority, however a hung parliament cannot be ruled out.

On a primary vote basis, the Liberals led on 33%, Labor 31%, the Greens 12%, One Nation 9% and Any Other Candidate 15%. The biggest change from 2022 was a 4% gain for One Nation and a 2.7% swing against the Coalition.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the Australian election poll showed primary swings against both Labor and the Coalition and towards One Nation and Independents, with the two-party preferred result barely unchanged from 2022.

“However, with the increasing share of minor parties and independent voters, even small changes in preference flows will have a significant outcome on the result.

Teal contests

In the 35 seats which have Climate 200-backed candidates, the Independents’ primary vote is 20% (up 7.3% from 2022), with Labor and the Coalition both recording falls in their primary vote share. 

Mr Hasanakos said it confirmed that the Teal Independents were going forwards, not backwards.

“This creates the conditions for the Teals to win seats beyond those they already hold.”

Key states

In the key battleground state of Victoria, both major parties have suffered a 1.8% two-party preferred swing against, but Labor still leads 53-47%. On a primary vote basis One Nation has seen an uptick in support to 9% (5.2% swing), and Independents are 8% (1.5% swing).

In the other battleground seat of New South Wales, it’s a very tight result of 50-50 two-party preferred, with a small shift to the Coalition of just over 1%.

Queensland has an almost identical result to the 2022 election, with almost no change in the two-party preferred result of Labor 46-54% Coalition.

According to the Australian election poll, Labor has a real chance of matching or beating its 2022 performance in WA with a 1% two-party preferred swing to it, polling at 56% TPP.  

Greens contests

In the 31 seats when the Greens polled 15% or more in 2022, The Greens’ primary vote remained almost relatively unchanged with only a 0.3% swing in support.

“Overall, The Greens have only marginally increased their vote, however any seat gains, or retains, will depend upon individual contests,” Mr Hasankos said.

DemosAU’s final Australian election poll had a very large sample size of 4,100 adults, making it the largest voting intention poll ever conducted by DemosAU.

The effective margin of error was +/- 1.9%.

For more information, see our report.

Sign up to our mailing list to stay up to date on the latest in Australian polling and market research.

Have a project to discuss? Get in touch.