WA Poll Results Prove DemosAU’s Commitment to Accuracy

DemosAU has confirmed its status as a leading pollster, delivering polling on the Western Australian election that closely mirrors the March 9 election result. With 70% of votes now counted, the results align very closely with DemosAU’s final pre-election poll, released on March 8, demonstrating the reliability of its methodology.

High Level of Polling Accuracy

The final DemosAU poll, conducted on March 4–5 with a sample size of 1,126, had an effective margin of error of ±3.8%. The polling firm predicted a two-party preferred (TPP) result of 57% for Labor and 43% for the Liberals, which appears to be extremely close to current projections with 70% of the vote counted. The ABC currently puts the race at 57.1% to 42.9%, while Poll Bludger puts the result at 57.4% to 47.6%.

In terms of primary vote share, the poll’s accuracy remained very close to the mark:

• Labor – Predicted: 43% | Current: 41.4% (-1.6%)
• Liberal – Predicted: 30% | Current: 28.1% (-1.9%)
• Nationals – Predicted: 5% | Current: 5.3% (+0.3%)
• Greens – Predicted: 11% | Current: 10.9% (-0.1%)
• Others – Predicted: 11% | Current: 14.3% (+3.3%)

Every result fell within the poll’s margin of error, reinforcing DemosAU’s commitment to delivering precise and credible electoral forecasts. Note: Results current as of 9am AEST. March 18, 2025.

Overcoming Unique Challenges in 2025

DemosAU’s Head of Research, George Hasanakos, acknowledged the particular difficulties in polling this election, noting that it followed the historically lopsided 2021 result, where Labor secured 53 of 59 seats.

“Polling this election was uniquely challenging because we were coming off an extreme result in 2021, making it harder to model voter behaviour,” Mr Hasanakos explained. “However, our data and methodology have proven their robustness, providing an accurate reflection of voter sentiment in Western Australia.”

Status Quo remains, despite large swings

On current numbers, the Labor primary vote dropped 18.3% compared to the historic 2021 landslide, while the Liberals gained 7%, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment. The Greens also saw a 3.8% increase, and minor parties and independents collectively gained ground.

Despite these swings, Labor remains in a commanding position, securing another comfortable victory under Premier Roger Cook, and likely to hold as many as 47 seats. The poll also showed Cook as the preferred Premier (47%) over Liberal leader Libby Mettam (32%), reinforcing his leadership standing.

A Benchmark for Future Polling

With these results, DemosAU has publicly demonstrated the very high quality and reliability of our polling and market research – building on a track record that our private clients have been benefiting from since 2023.

“Our commitment is to provide accurate, transparent, and insightful data, free of bias and supported by our deep expertise.” Mr Hasanakos said. “This election result validates our approach, and we look forward to continuing to serve our clients and the Australian public with high-quality polling and market research.”

DemosAU’s success in WA 2025 is a testament to the firm’s rigorous methodology and expertise, ensuring voters, media, and political stakeholders can rely on accurate data in an ever-evolving electoral environment.

Sign up to our mailing list to stay up to date on the latest in Australian polling and market research.

Have a project to discuss? Get in touch.