A new poll released today has found that the Coalition in Victoria is narrowly leading Labor 51-49% on a two-party preferred basis.
The DemosAU/PremierNational poll, conducted in September, shows a -10.7% primary swing against Labor since the last election, with the ALP recording a primary vote of 26%, compared to the Liberal’s 38%, up 3.5% from the 2022 election.
However, this is a one point improvement in Labor’s primary, compared to DemosAU’s March survey, in which it recorded a 25% primary, compared to 39% for the Liberals.
The poll also shows Victorian Labor’s work from home policy is overwhelmingly popular, with 57% of voters in support while only 19% opposed.
When voters were asked to nominate the biggest issue facing Victoria, crime and safety polled first (25%), then cost of living and inflation (24%), and the housing crisis (10%).
Another concern for Labor is Jacinta Allan’s personal popularity with Allan’s preferred premier score at 32% compared to Brad Battin at 37%.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said with a little over a year until the election, or less if you exclude the silly season period from Derby Day to Australia Day, both sides remained in the contest.
“It’s still very much an open contest and both parties are dealing with their own challenges including Jacinta Allan’s unpopularity and the Liberals’ internal issues.
“That means that while the Coalition has its nose in front to win government, Labor is not down and out.
“The Government is being weighed down by crime, particularly youth crime, but it’s also getting support through its work from home policy.”
PremierNational Partner Kathryn Conroy said the closeness of the result, and the popularity of the work from home policy showed Jacinta Allan’s Labor remained very much in the hunt.
“Whilst the swing in this poll would be concerning for the ALP, the 2PP is still close. The enormous popularity of the work from home policy unveiled by Premier Allan, demonstrates their appeal to so many working families. Over the months we should expect to see other more practical announcements from the Allan Government. This is a government that looks like they are determined to remain competitive and win the election,” she said.
PremierNational CEO Lachlan Crombie said the Liberal Opposition would be well placed to run a campaign focused on voters’ crime concerns.
“As a former police officer there is no doubt Brad Battin will use this to appeal to the quarter of voters who nominated crime as their single biggest issue, especially if he is able to provide a plan to comprehensively address the rising crime rates in Victoria and make voters feel safe,” he said.
The 2026 Victorian election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.
About the poll
The poll of 1,327 Victorians was conducted via internet panel from 2 to 9 September 2025. The effective margin of error was +/- 3.5%.
