Largest Poll Since 2025 Election Shows One Nation Would Win up to 55 Seats

A poll of more than 8,400 voters between January and March 2026 shows One Nation overtaking the Coalition to be the biggest opposition party in Australia, winning between 46 to 55 federal seats, while Labor retains a strong lead and would be returned with a reduced majority.

The DemosAU Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model, first published in Capital Brief, projects results for all 150 individual federal seats and provides an overall seat projection with ranges for each party.

Access the main report here, and all seat projections here.

The DemosAU MRP Poll shows if a federal election was held now, Labor would win 77–86 seats, One Nation 46–55 seats, Coalition 9–17 seats (Liberal 9–15, Nationals 0–2), Greens 0–3 seats, and Others 2–6.

This compares to our October/November 2025 MRP which showed One Nation winning 12 seats, which would itself be a major jump for Ms Hanson’s right-wing party.

The MRP projects, based on a two-candidate preferred vote, the ‘notional’ leader in each seat and categorises those seats as either “firm” (strongly favoured to win), “lean” (moderate chance of winning) or “in doubt” (too close to call).

According to the model, Labor leads in 83 seats (56 firm, 20 lean and 7 in doubt), One Nation leads in 52 seats (23 firm, 25 lean and 4 in doubt), Coalition in 9 seats (5 firm, 1 lean and 3 in doubt), Greens in 1 seat (1 in doubt), and Others in 5 seats (1 firm, 1 lean and 3 in doubt).

The Seats One Nation Would Win

Seats where One Nation is firmly in front include Fairfax (QLD), Fadden (QLD), Canning (WA), Forrest (WA), Wright (QLD), Lyne (NSW), Monash (VIC), Capricornia (QLD), Dawson (QLD), Hinkler (QLD), Wide Bay (QLD), Grey (SA), Nicholls (VIC), Flynn (QLD), Parkes (NSW), Wannon (VIC), Cowper (NSW), Gippsland (VIC), Maranoa (QLD), Calare (NSW), Indi (VIC), Mallee (VIC), and Groom (QLD).

Seats which are leaning to One Nation include Gilmore (NSW), La Trobe (VIC), Bowman (QLD), Forde (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Bullwinkel (WA), Braddon (TAS), Longman (QLD), McPherson (QLD), Solomon (NT), Hunter (NSW), Bendigo (VIC), Casey (VIC), Fisher (QLD), Moncrieff (QLD), Flinders (VIC), Page (NSW), Hume (NSW), Durack (WA), O’Connor (WA), Barker (SA), Farrer (NSW), Riverina (NSW), Mayo (SA), and Kennedy (QLD).

Marginal seats which were too close to call but where One Nation leads include Hawke (VIC), Blair (QLD), Lindsay (NSW), and New England (NSW).

Marginal seats where One Nation is behind but could win include Herbert (QLD), Petrie (QLD), Bass (TAS), Lingiari (NT), Paterson (NSW), and Eden-Monaro (NSW).

The model also shows One Nation winning the NSW seat of Farrer; however, this should not be taken as a prediction of the upcoming by-election result because by-election dynamics are vastly different to those of a general election.

Coalition Would be Relegated to the Cross-bench, Nationals Face Wipeout

DemosAU Director of Research George Hasanakos said One Nation is leading or threatening to win most Coalition seats, and around 10 Labor seats.

“This is the most comprehensive poll conducted since the 2025 election and shows the Coalition would be relegated to the crossbench if an election were held today,” he said.

“Based on this model, One Nation would become the major opposition party, capturing all of the National Party’s electorates and most of those held by the Liberals.”

“We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, places which have many new residents priced out of housing elsewhere.”

“Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers.”

However, Mr Hasanakos said the election was still around two years away and it was yet to be seen whether One Nation could maintain its momentum.

“The surge in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the Coalition especially to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it has lost to One Nation.”

“That process has already started with the leadership of the Coalition parties switching to Angus Taylor for the Liberals and Matt Canavan for the Nationals, both of whom could be seen as more appealing to the cohort of voters lost to One Nation than their predecessors.”

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Notes about this poll

The results of this poll were obtained from a Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model of federal voting intention.

The model utilised the federal voting intention of 8,484 poll respondents, collected between 13 January and 3 March 2026.

The MRP model generated primary vote share estimates for all 150 House of Representatives electorates.

The poststratification frame for the MRP model used age, gender, education, income, state, region and 2025 federal election vote as the relevant demographic information.

Two-candidate preferred results for each seat were estimated based on relevant preference flows at the 2025 federal election, except for preferences associated with One Nation where preference flows were modelled on large-scale respondent-allocated preference data.

The electorate vote shares indicated by the DemosAU MRP should be considered with a confidence interval at 95% probability of +/- 5%. To reflect this uncertainty, each seat is classified based on a calculated probability of victory by the leading party.