The state Liberal National Coalition has extended its lead ahead of the Victorian election, with Labor relegated to third place on primary votes by a rising One Nation vote, according to a new poll.

The DemosAU/PremierNational poll of 1,056 voters between 7 and 11 June 2026 shows the LNP leading on primary votes (30%), One Nation second on 23% and Labor on 21%. aThe Greens were steady on 15% and Others on 11%.

On a two party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor to 55-45.

Labor recorded a -2% swing since DemosAU’s February 2026 poll, making it a -15.7% swing since the last election. One Nation is up 2% since February and the LNP 1%.

Jess Wilson (Liberal) leads Jacinta Allan Labor 47-28 on preferred premier, (+7% for Wilson since our February poll)

Asked whether people had a positive or negative view of the two leaders, Allan scored a net positive of -39% while Wilson’s net positive score was 10%.

Cost of living was the top issue for Victorians, but compared to other states, the second biggest issue was crime and violence while housing was fourth on list. Government spending and debt was third.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said the poll indicated a change of government was likely at the November election if the current trajectory continued.

“This is the first poll we’ve done that indicates that a Coalition majority is the most likely outcome if the election was held today, though a One Nation lower house balance of power is still possible.

“Previous polls we’ve done since 2025 have shown a closer contest, with the possibility of Labor being able to contain seat losses to hold onto Government, or a hung parliament. 

“It’s increasingly looking likely that there will be a change of government in November if things keep going the way they are.”

Mr Hasanakos said preference flows would be key to the result: the Coalition would rely on One Nation preferences to win seats over Labor, while Coalition preferences would be needed for One Nation to pick up Melbourne fringe and regional seats from Labor. 

However, in rural areas where One Nation could challenge the Liberals and Nationals, Labor preferences would likely stop significant gains by One Nation from the Coalition.  

Broken down by age, 38% of Victorians aged 55+ intended to vote for the Coalition while voters aged 18-34 were more likely to vote for Labor (25%). Victorians aged 35-54 year olds gave their first preference to the Coalition (30%).

Mr Hasanakos said the poll showed government debt, and especially crime, resonated much more highly with Victorians compared to residents of other states, based on DemosAU’s polling. 

“Crime and violence was the second biggest issue of importance to Victorians which indicates that community safety is likely to be a key campaign issue later in the year.”

This poll of 1,033 respondents was carried out between 27 May and 3 June 2026. The effective margin of error is +/- 3.8%. For more information, check out our report.

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