• New DemosAU/PremierNational poll shows a swing from minor parties to both Labor and the Coalition
• Check out our report for full data and methodology.

The Coalition continues to hold an election-winning lead ahead of Victoria’s state election, despite a modest improvement in Labor’s vote after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan, according to new polling.

The DemosAU/PremierNational poll of 1,007 Victorians, conducted from 6-11 August, shows Jess Wilson’s Liberal/National Coalition leading with a primary vote of 32% — up 2% compared to the June poll. 

Under Mr Carroll, Labor is up 2 points to 23%, while One Nation is 22% (-1%), The Greens 13% (-2%) and Others10%  (-1%).

On a two party preferred basis, the Coalition leads Labor 55% to 45%, unchanged from the June poll.

Ms Wilson leads Mr Carroll as Preferred Premier 43-34%, which is narrower than the 47-28% lead she held over Ms Allan.

Ms Wilson holds a net positive rating of +11, with 35% of voters having a positive opinion of the Liberal leader and 24% holding a negative opinion. 

By comparison, Mr Carroll’s rating is -16, with 21% of voters holding a positive opinion and 37% holding a negative opinion. This is an improvement on the -39% rating recorded by Ms Allan in June. 

One Nation leader Warren Pickering has a net rating of -19, while Greens leader Ellen Sandell’s rating is -16.

DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said while the leadership change had led to a modest improvement in Labor’s vote, it had not altered the overall polling trend towards the State Coalition.

“The change in leadership has improved Labor’s standing among some voters open to Labor but who were dissatisfied with Jacinta Allan.

“However, Jess Wilson’s tour of 88 state electorates has paid dividends with the Coalition support continuing to rise even as an unpopular opponent has left the stage.

“While a 32% primary is a fall from the Coalition’s 2022 result, with a more fragmented party system due to the rise of One Nation, primary votes shares such as these can still lead to parliamentary majorities.” 

“Ben Carroll’s rise to the premiership has improved Labor’s position among men and voters with a TAFE qualification.

“Jess Wilson’s recent performance as opposition leader has led to a significant rise among women, attracting female voters from across the political spectrum. 

“Coalition support is also improving among outer metropolitan voters and mortgage-holders which are both signs that the Coalition is becoming more appealing in middle Victoria.

PremierNational Director Georgia de Mestre said the poll suggests voters are turning their minds to the choice in front of them in just a few months.

“As the election gets closer, voters are shifting their thinking from protest to what kind of government they want, which explains the lift in the primary vote of both major parties.

“A leadership change is the most significant lever a party can pull. While Labor’s decision to shift to Ben Carroll hasn’t lifted Labor’s two party preferred vote, the premier’s net popularity is significantly better than Jacinta Allan’s.

“Premier Carroll has acted quickly to differentiate himself from his predecessors with key announcements such as calling a royal commission and delaying work from home laws.

“The Opposition Leader, Jess Wilson continues to build her brand positively with her recent statewide blitz helping her define what kind of leader she would be, and going by these numbers Victorians are liking what they see. The challenge will be maintaining the momentum.”

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