The Liberal/National Coalition leads Labor 51 – 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis in Victoria, according to the latest DemosAU state voting intention poll.
The poll shows primary votes of 37 per cent for the Coalition (2.5 per cent swing from 2022 election), 26 per cent for Labor (-10.7 per cent swing) 15 per cent for the Greens (3.5 per cent swing) and 22 per cent for any other candidate (4.6 per cent).
On a two-party preferred basis, that results in a six per cent swing to the Liberal National Coalition and a six per cent swing against Labor.
Brad Battin (Liberal) leads Jacinta Allan as premier premier 40 – 32 per cent.
In the Upper House, the Coalition would secure the most votes (30 per cent), Labor would secure 21 per cent, The Greens 14 per cent and One Nation 11 per cent.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said both parties remained in the contest.
“The electoral contest in Victoria remains tight with a no change result on a two-party preferred basis since the previous DemosAU poll last month.
“On a primary vote basis, since the previous month’s poll the Coalition has slipped one percentage point to the benefit of others.
“Currrently, we are seeing an incumbent government that is feeling its age with over a decade in office, while voters are lukewarm about the opposition. The result is a slice of voters are placing their votes with minor parties and independents for the first time at a state level.
“The rise of One Nation in Victoria is evident in our latest poll with One Nation receiving a nine per cent swing in the Upper House vote since the last election.”
The 2026 Victorian election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.
About the poll
The poll of 1,016 Victorians was conducted via internet panel from 21 to 27 October 2025. The effective margin of error was +/- 3.8%.
Read the methodology statement here.
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