A Labor majority, A Coalition majority and a hung Parliament are all realistic options
By George Hasanakos
If you’ve followed some of the Australian election commentary recently you might get the impression that the result is a foregone conclusion.
From commentators claiming a minority government is “inevitable” to suggestions that a Peter Dutton led government is virtually a certainty, the commentariat has certainly worked itself up. No wonder one online bookmaker currently puts the odds of a Labor majority at 15-1.
There are others that say majority government is out of the question for the Coalition due to the Teal Independents.
But does the current polling really back up these confident predictions? The short answer is: not at all. A raft of recent polls have put the Coalition ahead 51 – 49. Our most recent publicly released poll from DemosAU put the race at 50 – 50. In other words, it’s a close race and a modest swing either way during the election campaign would totally change the result.
In my opinion, anything is reasonably possible at this point: A Labor majority, a Coalition majority and yes, a hung parliament.
It’s worth noting that it’s not unusual for a first term government seeking re-election to find itself in a close race. In fact, based on what we’ve seen over the past few decades it might well be the norm.
Let’s start with 1998 when John Howard sought a second term for the Coalition they got back into office with a majority of 12 but only 49% of the two party preferred vote.
In 2010 when Julia Gillard sought a second term for Labor, Labor won 50.1% of the two party preferred vote but it was a hung parliament.
In 2016 when Malcolm Turnbull sought a second term for the Coalition they got 50.4% of the two party preferred vote but only a majority of two.
As you can see, they were all very close contests.
Cost of living remains the key issue of this federal election and has consistently ranked as the number one issue for voters according to our polls for the last two years. It also bites hardest in the outer metropolitan areas of our major cities, especially outer Sydney and Melbourne.
And the way I see it these areas will be key to whether either major party can form a majority government.
For the Coalition to win a majority it needs to run up gains in outer Sydney and Melbourne and in the Central Coast and the Hunter Valley.
For Labor to win a majority they must limit their losses in NSW and Victoria, pick up seats in Queensland and Tasmania, and hold their WA gains.
Whether it is a case of groupthink among political commentators or just feverish election excitement, maybe we all need a cup of tea, a Bex and a lie down.
This election is still very much up in the air. There could be a majority either way and it is my view that this election will be won or lost during the campaign.
This article first appeared in The Courier-Mail. See our News and Research page for more insights.
